JWSS - Journal of Water and Soil Science

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Zareian M. Effects of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation in Yazd Province Based on Combined Output of CMIP6 Models. jwss 2022; 26 (2) :91-105
URL: http://jstnar.iut.ac.ir/article-1-4156-en.html

This study was conducted to investigate the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation changes in important synoptic weather stations in Yazd province (including Yazd, Bafgh, Marvast, and Robat-e-Poshtebadam). Accordingly, a combination of the outputs of the latest AOGCM models presented in the IPCC sixth assessment report (CMIP6) were used to increase the accuracy of temperature and precipitation forecasts. A weighting method was used based on the Kling-Gupta combined index (KGE) to combine these models. After weighting the models, the monthly temperature and precipitation changes were calculated based on SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 emission scenarios. Then, daily temperature and precipitation time series were extracted for different weather stations using the LARS-WG downscaling model. The results showed that in all the weather stations, CanESM5 and BCC-CSM2-MR models have the best ability to simulate the temperature and precipitation of the historical period, respectively. Results also showed that in all emission scenarios, the annual temperature will increase and the annual precipitation will decrease. The annual temperature of this region will increase between 0.2 to 0.6 °C, and the annual precipitation will decrease between 2.9 and 13.7% in different weather stations. Also, the maximum temperature increase and precipitation decrease in this region, will occur in spring and autumn, respectively.