JWSS - Journal of Water and Soil Science

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The study of geographical extent of precipitation pattern is important because of its impact on agriculture, water resources, tourism, industry, dams, and irrigation. The principal component analysis (PCA), as an elegant mathematical tool, was applied for the regionalization of winter precipitation in central south Iran (Fars, Boushehr, and Kohgiloye and Boyerahmad Provinces). Averaging monthly rainfall data of Dey, Bahman and Esfand (20 December to 20 March) produced the time series of winter rainfall. In each individual station, correlation matrix of the normalized data was then performed for the computation of the standard PCA. Eigenvalues, eigenvectors, PC time series and the loading of the principal components were then computed. The Screet test technique was applied as a trial for addressing the problem of determining the number of PC modes that should be retained. Two of the first PCs, which account for 68.1% of total variance in the rainfall data, were kept and used for the regionalization of rainfall data. The rotation solution was then selected as a suitable tool for delineating the rainfall region associated with the retained PCs. The results indicated that for the first PC, loading became high over most part of the study area. Therefore, the time series of PC1 that accounts for about 60.4% of the variance in raw data, could be used as the regional time series of winter rainfall over most parts of the provinces studied. The second PC revealed a high loading over a small area in northern part of the regions studied (Bavanat in Fars Province). Rainfall in this station showed poor correlation with the precipitation over the neighboring station in Fars Province. It seems that the rainfall in Bavanat is mostly influenced by the Mediterranean air masses entering the area through the northern and western districts. For the other parts of the regions studied, Sudan current which encroaches the country through southwestern borders (Persian Gulf regions) make up an essential portion of winter rainfall.