L. Cheraghpoor, M. Pajoohesh, A. Davoodyan, A. Bozorgmehr,
Volume 23, Issue 4 (Special Issue of Flood and Soil Erosion, Winter 2019)
River discharge is among the influential factors on the operation of water resources systems and the design of hydraulic structures, such as dams; so the study of it is of great importance. Several effective factors on this non-linear phenomenon have caused the discharge to be assumed as being accidental. According to the basics the chaos theory, the seemingly random and chaotic systems have regular patterns that are predictable. In this research, by using methods of phase space mapping, correlation dimension, largest Liapunov exponent and Fourier spectrum power, a period covering 43 years of Zayandehrud River discharge (1971-2013) was evaluated and analyzed based on the chaos theory. According to the results, the non-integer value of the correlation dimension for Eskandari and Ghale Shahrokh stations (3.34 and 3.6) showed that there was a chaotic behavior in the upstream of Zayandehrud-Dam Reservoir. On the other hand, in the Tanzimi-Dam station, the correlation dimension curve was ascending with respect to the embedding dimension, showing that the studied time-series in the downstream of Zayandehrud-Dam Reservoir was random. The slope of the Lyapunov exponent curve for Eskandari, Ghale Shahrokh and Tanzimi-Dam stations was 0.0104, 0.017 and 0.0192, respectively, and the prediction horizon in the chaotic stations was 96 and 59 days. The non-periodical feature of time series was studied by using the Fourier spectrum power. The wide bandwidth, besides other indices, showed that river discharge in the upstream stations of Zayandehrud Reservoir was chaotic.
