Showing 11 results for zibaei
Mansour Zibaei, Gholam Reza Soltani, Ahmad Ali Keykha,
Volume 2, Issue 4 (winter 1999)
Abstract
The production and acreage of corn in Iran and in Fars Province, in particular, are expanding at an increasing rate. The impacts of this event was studied by a risk programming model (MOTAD). The results indicated that the optimal cropping patterns with corn had less variance than the optimal patterns without corn in all income levels. The results also showed that with the introduction of corn into cropping pattern, the use of land and water were increased, but the rate of increase in the use of land was more than the rate of increase in the use of water. By determining risk - aversion coefficient for the sample farmers, their sensitivity to corn price changes were studied. The results indicated that the relationship between corn and wheat is complementary but it is competing with barley, sugarbeet, cotton, cucurbits and legumes.
B. Najafi, M. Zibaei, M. H. Sheikhi, M. H. Tarazkar,
Volume 11, Issue 1 (spring 2007)
Abstract
In this study wholesale prices of selected crops, namely, tomato, onion and potatoes in Fars province were predicted for various time horizons by using common methods of forecasting and artificial neural networks (ANN). Monthly data from September 1998 to June 2005 period were obtained from Ministry of Jihad-e Agriculture. For comparing different methods data selected from September 1998 to December 2004 were utilized, and latest six - month data were mainly used to monitor the power of prediction. The MAE, MSE and MAPE criteria were used for comparing the ability of different forecasting methods. Results of this study showed that ANN had the lowest error in prediction of prices for one - to three - month periods, but for six - month prediction, all forecasting methods were not statistically different.
M. Zibaei, M. Jafari Sani,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (spring 2008)
Abstract
While technical efficiencies of firms that are estimated with respect to a given frontier are comparable, this is not normally valid the case among firms that operate under different technologies. Such problem arises when comparisons of firms from different regions of country are involved. This study uses the concept of the metafrontier function to investigate regional differences in milk production technologies of Iran. Metafrontier function was estimated using non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) and required data are collected from 726 questionnaires. Results of estimating regional frontier production function indicated that, gap between the best producer and other producers in Yazd is minimum and it is maximum in Esfahan. Also estimation of metafrontier production function and technical gap ratio showed that Tehran and Yazd have higher technical operation in comparison with other studied provinces.
M. K. Shaabani, T. Honar, M. Zibaei,
Volume 12, Issue 44 (summer 2008)
Abstract
Limitations of rainfall and surface water resources farmers have to use both surface and subsurface resources for growing different crops. In this study optimal management of irrigation water allocation and cropping pattern utilizing conjunctive use of surface and subsurface water resources is studied. Also the effect of reducing water consumption in different growth stages with different irrigation strategies for major crops (wheat, barely, corn, sugar beet, rice) in Fars province was studied. The results of the study showed that optimal cropping pattern for the first season would be mainly wheat and in the second season would be corn and rice. Also in this model different policies for decreasing water demand were studied. Since crop water requirement in the second season is higher than the first season, therefore restriction on including high water consuming crops in the second season would be the best choice in the cropping pattern.
A Mohseni, M Zibaei,
Volume 13, Issue 47 (4-2009)
Abstract
Because of the fact that alternative agricultural policies cannot be examined in a laboratory, the potential effects of policies must be analyzed before policy setting, and during or after the policy implementation using mathematical programming (MP) models. In this context, the consequences of increasing the acreage of colza at representative farm (RF) level of Namdan plain were analyzed using positive mathematical programming (PMP), which were improved to overcome normative character of optimization models. The main aim of PMP is to give as true a picture as possible of the situation and then simulate the behavior of farmers as parameters in which the object of agricultural policy intervention is shifted. Based on the results of this study, reduction in the acreage of wheat and bean and increase in the expected profit of RFs are the consequences of increasing acreage of colza. But, as variance of profit increases, the net impact of policy on the expected utility of RFs is not perfectly known. The results also indicated that the use of pesticide increases through introducing colza into a cropping pattern. The effect of policy on water use is different among RFs and they can't take this policy as a water demand management policy.
M Zibaei, R Rahmani,
Volume 13, Issue 48 (7-2009)
Abstract
In this study the causality relationship among variables in chicken and beef markets were investigated based on annual data from 1974 to 2004 in the I.S. of Iran. For this purpose, causality algorithms emerging from directed acyclic graphs were used in two cases, one based on co- integration analysis and innovation correlation matrix of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the other using data directly. In the investigation of causality process, PC algorithm based on partial correlations and GES (Greedy Equivalent Search) based on Bayesian network model were used. The results revealed that there is no specific causality relation between chicken and beef consumption and their price indices. Thus it seems other variables and government interventions are effective factors in these markets. Therefore, this model is an instrument for forecasting changes of these variables. In these markets there are causality relations among price indices, quantities of consumption and other variables. Beef price index as endogenous variable, is under the effect of chicken price index, non meat food price index, non food price index, per capita expenditure and quantity of chicken consumption. The quantity of beef consumption is predetermined and isn’t under the effect of other variables. Chicken price index is endogenous and under the effect of beef price index, per capita expenditure and non food price index. Also chicken quantity consumption is endogenous and under the effect of beef quantity consumption and non meat food price index. With respect to the findings, for effectiveness, policy initiatives aimed at improving in meat industry should be different for different meat markets and the method of directed graphs can be used a s a guideline.
R Mohsen Pour, M Zibaei,
Volume 14, Issue 52 (sumer 2010)
Abstract
Drought is among the most costly weather-related events and Iran is highly vulnerable to the economic, social and environmental impacts of drought In this study expected profit maximization model and utility efficient programming were applied to determine optimal crop pattern, expected gross margin and water use with and without, drought condition at representative farms of homogenous groups. This study was based on two databases. A sample of 180 farmers was selected for interview and collected necessary farm level data in 2007. The sample farms were drawn using two-stage stratified random sampling method. Results indicated that the largest reduction in expected profit is directed toward farmers who use surface water from river or canal. These groups of farms ultimately suffered a severe reduction in expected income (53%-64%) as a consequence of the drought, largely because their access to water was cut substantially. The least quantity of damage is directed toward homogenous groups of farms that use groundwater or conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water. Reduction in expected income of these groups is equal to 7 and 32 percent of expected income in the normal year, respectively. Finally, the results showed that the pattern of release water from gate of Drodzan have not been optimal in the planting years 2001-2002 and 2006-2007 based on the calculated shadow price of each cubic meter water in different deciles of year.
F. Fathi, M. Zibaei ,
Volume 14, Issue 53 (fall 2010)
Abstract
Overexploitation of groundwater resource may result in lowering groundwater table at a faster rate due to an imbalance in the total recharge and total withdrawal. In order to make a balance between groundwater exploitation and recharge, the major remedial measures suggested are to strengthen groundwater management, adopt water demand policies, raise water use efficiency, and to increase water supply. Because there is a trade off between farmers’ income and sustainability of groundwater based farming, it is essential that a mathematical model be used to study the effects of withdrawal on farmers' income and sustainability of farm. Such a model can determine optimal crop pattern, suitable irrigation strategies and irrigation methods at different levels of available irrigation water. The relationship between farmers’ income and the withdrawal was then examined using multi-objective programming. The data were obtained from a systematic random sampling method through which 112 farmers were chosen. The percentage decrease in the profit was less than that of the withdrawal for all representative farmers, based on the results obtained from multi-objective method. For example, 8% reduction of groundwater pumping could be imposed without a serious impact on the farmers' income (farmers' income falls about 4%). Finally, the results of this study can help farmers to choose crop patterns, irrigation strategies and irrigation methods in such a way that both farmers’ income and withdrawal are simultaneously optimized and lead to a decrease in extracting groundwater compared to the current status.
M. H. Zibaei, A. M. Akhoond-Ali,
Volume 20, Issue 78 (Winter 2017)
Abstract
Water scarcity is a major and structural problem in arid and semi-arid regions across the world that greatly concerns environmental policy-makers. The problem of adjusting the demand exceeding the sustainable supply has been mainly tackled with demand policies, particularly through investment in water saving technology and promotion of irrigation efficiency programs. However, there have been very few evaluations of these programs and many of those that exist raise serious doubt about the programs’ effectiveness in reducing the consumptive use of water, due to the occurrence of the rebound effect. In this study, a sample of 243 farmers in Fars province who have the sprinkler irrigation system installed in their farms was interviewed to collect needed data for investigating the rebound effect using AHP and ordered logit regression model. The results indicated that 74.5 percent of sampled farmers have experienced medium to large rebound effect. It was also found that the amount of dry and fallow land during installation of sprinkler irrigation system have a positive relationship with the probability of occurrence of the rebound effect. Finally, the results of this study can be used to determine the probability of the rebound effect occurrence after installment of the sprinkler system for farms where data is available. For example, in the farms with farm features 24, probability of the rebound effect as a result of water saving measures at the low, medium and high levels are 0.4, 32 and 67.4 percent, respectively. Therefore, we must apply specific water conservation and efficiency practices in such farms based on a combined use of technical, economic, social and political tools to reduce pressure on scarce water supplies.
M. H. Tarazkar, M. Zibaei, G.r. Soltani, M. Nooshadi,
Volume 22, Issue 2 (Summer 2018)
Abstract
Nowadays, water resource management has been shifted from the construction of new water supply systems to the management and the optimal utilization of the existing ones. In this study, the reservoir operating rules of Doroodzan dam reservoir, located in Fars province, were determined using different methods and the most efficient model was selected. For this purpose, a monthly nonlinear multi-objective optimization model was designed using the monthly data of a fifteen-year period (2002-2017). Objective functions were considered as minimizing water scarcity index in municipal, industrial, environmental and agricultural sectors. In order to determine the operating rule curves of reservoir, in addition to the nonlinear multi-objective optimization model, the methods of ordinary least-squares regression (OLS), fuzzy inference system and adaptive network fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) were used. Also, the reliability, resiliency, vulnerability and sustainability criteria were used to compare the different methods of reservoir performance rules. The results showed that ANFIS model had the higher sustainability criterion (0.26) due to its greater reliability (0.7) and resilience (0.42), as well as its lower vulnerability (0.13), thereby showing the best performance. Therefore, ANFIS model could be effectively used for the creation of Doroodzan reservoir operation rules.
S. Motalebani, M. Zibaei, A. Sheikhzeinoddin,
Volume 24, Issue 3 (Fall 2020)
Abstract
The interaction of population growth, technological improvement and climate change have impacted severely on agricultural and environmental sustainability. In Iran, conventional tillage practice has resulted in soil erosion and loss of soil organic matter. In this regard, Conservation Agriculture (CA) forms part of this alternative paradigm to agricultural production systems approaches and can be regarded as a means to enhancing food productivity, reducing poverty, and mitigating the consequences of climate change in rural households. The objectives of this study were to examine the determinants and impacts of CA technology on wheat yield, poverty gap and water use. To this end, an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model was employed to estimate the impacts of CA technology on continuous variables such as wheat yield, poverty gap and water use. A sample of 260 farmers from Zarghan district was selected for interview collection of necessary farm level data. The results indicated that in the select equation of ESR model, ten coefficients (out of 12) are significant at the 5% level or higher. Knowledge of soil quality, access to credit, access to information, education, farm size, ownership of machinery, participation in agricultural extension activities and farmer’ perception have positive and significant effects on the probability of adopting CA. In contrast, variables such as the distance to shopping center and number of land parcels have negative and significant influence on adoption. Also, the results of ESR model and counterfactual analysis showed that wheat yield would increase by 1.05 tons and poverty gap and water use would decrease by 20% and 910 cubic meters per hectare respectively if farmers adopt CA technology.
