Showing 52 results for Climate
M. Motamedi, H. R. Eshghizadeh, A. Nematpour, A. Gohari, B. Safa,
Volume 25, Issue 2 (9-2021)
Abstract
World climate change is an accepted important subject but its negative effects are severe in arid and semi-arid areas of Iran. So, in the present study, two climate scenarios including RCP 8.5 (critical scenario) and RCP 4.5 (moderate scenario) during 2020, 2030, and 2040 decades and their effects on temperature changes in the wheat growth period in five cities of Isfahan province including Isfahan, Najaf Abad, Chadegan, Burkhar, and Meimeh have been investigated. The survey of temperature changes during wheat growth in the next decades showed that Burkhar, Isfahan, Najaf Abad, Chadegan, and Meimeh, respectively will experience more days with a temperature higher than 30°C in 2020, 2030, and 2040 decades than the mean of two recent years (2017-2018). Furthermore, in comparison with present conditions, the most changes in the number of days with a temperature higher than 30°C in next decades climates (2020, 2030, and 2040 decades) will be in Burkhar, Meimeh, Chadegan, Najaf Abad, and Isfahan, respectively. The range of changes percent in the number of days higher than 30°C in next climate conditions rather than present condition will be varied between 5 percent (Isfahan) till 97 percent (Burkhar). The changes percent in all studied cities were more in RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5. During wheat growth, the number of days less than zero°C will be less in Isfahan, Burkhar, and Meimeh while will be more in Najaf Abad and Chadegan. The evaporation- transpiration will be increased in the next decades during wheat growth. As a result, planning and using compatibility strategies for each city is important to guarantee wheat production.
Prof. J. Abedi-Koupai, S. Rahimi, S. Eslamian,
Volume 25, Issue 3 (12-2021)
Abstract
Changing the date of the first fall frost and the last spring frost is an important phenomenon in agriculture that can be one of the consequences of global warming. Using general circulation models (GCMs) is a way to study future climate. In this study, observations of temperature and precipitation were weighted by using Mean Observed Temperature-Precipitation (MOTP) method. This method considers the ability of each model in simulating the difference between the mean simulated temperature and mean precipitation in each month in the baseline period and the corresponding observed values. The model that had more weight, selected as the optimum model because it is expected that the model will be valid for the future. But, these models are not indicative of stationary climate change due to their low spatial resolution. Therefore, in this research, the outputs of GCM models are based on the three emission scenarios A2 and B1 and A1B, downscaled by LARS-WG for Isfahan station. The data were analyzed by SPSS software at a 95% confidence level (P<0.05). The results indicated that in the Isfahan in the future period 2020-2049 based on the three scenarios, as compared with baseline period 1971-2000, the first fall frost will occur later and the last spring frost will occur earlier. The first fall frost will occur later for 2 days (based on the A1B emission scenario) to 5 days (based on the A2 emission scenario) and the last spring frost will occur earlier for 2 days (based on the and B1 emission scenario) to 4 days (based on the A2 emission scenario). Finally, the best distribution functions for the first fall frost and the last spring frost for the baseline period and under climate change were selected and compared using the EasyFit software.
H. Noori Khaje Balagh, F. Mousavi,
Volume 25, Issue 3 (12-2021)
Abstract
In the present study, CanESM2 climate change model and stormwater management model (SWMM) were employed to investigate the climate change effects on the quantity and quality of urban runoff in a part of Karaj watershed, Alborz Province. The base period (1985-2005) and future period (2020-2040) are considered for this purpose. Based on the existing main and lateral drainage system and to be more accurate, the watershed was divided into 37 sub-watersheds by ArcGIS software. To simulate rainfall-runoff, the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve has been prepared for a 2-hour duration and 10-year return period, for the base period and RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios based on the obtained precipitation data from Karaj synoptic station. Results showed that mean 24-hour precipitation values in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios will increase by 21% and 11%, respectively, and maximum 24-hour precipitation values will decrease by 17% and 23%, respectively, as compared to the observed values in the base period. Also, based on the results of quantitative and qualitative runoff modeling in the study watershed, and according to the outflow hydrograph in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the outlet runoff discharge will decrease by 5.8% and 7.1%, respectively. Also, the flooded areas in the watershed will decrease by 13% and 15.28%, respectively. The concentration of pollutants in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, compared to the base period, including total suspended solids (TSS), will increase by 7.48% and 9.24%, total nitrogen (TN) will increase by 6.93% and 8.48%, and lead (Pb) will increase by 7.32% and 8.91%, respectively.
M. Zareian,
Volume 26, Issue 2 (9-2022)
Abstract
This study was conducted to investigate the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation changes in important synoptic weather stations in Yazd province (including Yazd, Bafgh, Marvast, and Robat-e-Poshtebadam). Accordingly, a combination of the outputs of the latest AOGCM models presented in the IPCC sixth assessment report (CMIP6) were used to increase the accuracy of temperature and precipitation forecasts. A weighting method was used based on the Kling-Gupta combined index (KGE) to combine these models. After weighting the models, the monthly temperature and precipitation changes were calculated based on SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 emission scenarios. Then, daily temperature and precipitation time series were extracted for different weather stations using the LARS-WG downscaling model. The results showed that in all the weather stations, CanESM5 and BCC-CSM2-MR models have the best ability to simulate the temperature and precipitation of the historical period, respectively. Results also showed that in all emission scenarios, the annual temperature will increase and the annual precipitation will decrease. The annual temperature of this region will increase between 0.2 to 0.6 °C, and the annual precipitation will decrease between 2.9 and 13.7% in different weather stations. Also, the maximum temperature increase and precipitation decrease in this region, will occur in spring and autumn, respectively.
H. Ahmadzadeh, A. Fakheri Fard, Mohammad Ali Ghorbani, M. Tajrishy,
Volume 26, Issue 3 (12-2022)
Abstract
Determining the actual evapotranspiration value and analyzing its temporal trend is essential for optimal water resources management in a basin. In the present paper, the actual evapotranspiration time series is simulated and its trend is analyzed according to the trend of climatic variables and land use in the Ajichi basin during the period of 2015-1987. The comprehensive SWAT model was set up, calibrated, and validated for the Ajichi basin. Also, the average of simulated actual evapotranspiration of crops (in wet years) was compared with similar values in the National Water Document. The results of the Mann-Kendall trend test showed that the annual rainfall in most meteorological stations had a decreasing trend and the rainfall trend in the ten stations decreased significantly. While the annual maximum temperature at all stations and the annual minimum temperature in most of them have significantly increased. Investigation of land use maps illustrated that the irrigated land area of the basin has increased by a 39% during the study period. According the study's results, the potential evapotranspiration of the basin has had a significant increasing trend with a rate of 2.54 mm per year. The results indicated that despite the increasing trend of potential evapotranspiration and irrigated land area, the actual evapotranspiration of the basin had a significant decreasing trend with a rate of 2.2 mm per year due to the decrease in rainfall.
F. Fathian, M. Ghadami, Z. Dehghan,
Volume 26, Issue 4 (12-2022)
Abstract
In this research, the trend of spatial changes in extreme indices of temperature related to the health and agriculture sectors such as the number of frost days, number of summer days, number of icing days, number of tropical nights, growing season length, diurnal temperature range, cold spell duration index, and warm spell duration index were investigated for 54 synoptic stations throughout Iran for observational (1976-2005) and future (2025-2054) periods. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data of three regional climate models namely, CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR, and NORESM1-ME from the CORDEX project under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled for each station using a developed multiscale bias correction method. Then, trends and changes of extreme temperature indices were investigated using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s trend line slope methods. The results indicated that the warm indices such as the number of summer days and tropical nights indices have had a positive trend at most stations in both observational and future periods. In contrast, cold indices like the number of frost days have had a decreasing trend in most stations. The results of cold and warm spell duration indices showed that most stations have had no trend for both periods. The growing season length has increased in more than 60% of stations (45% having a significant trend) mainly located in the northern, northwestern, and western regions of the country. Based on the results, it can be concluded that without considering thoughtful climate adaptation measures, some parts of the country may face health risks and limited habitability and agriculture in the future.
T. Mohammadi, V. Sheikh, A. Zare,
Volume 26, Issue 4 (12-2022)
Abstract
Trend analysis of stream flow provides practical information for better management of water resources on the eve of climate change. Therefore, the present study investigated river flow variations during three decades as well as projections of future discharge in the Gorganrood watershed. The Man-Kendall method has been used to detect the trend and methods of Pettitt, SNHT, and Buishand to identify points of a sudden change in discharge time series in 8 stations of Aq Qala, Galikesh, Gonbad, Haji Ghoshan, Nodeh, Ramyan, Sadgorgan, and Tamar. The Mann-Kendall trend test showed the existence of a significant negative trend (flow reduction) on a daily and annual scale in all stations. Monthly, the strongest negative trend in Aq Qala, Galikesh, Gonbad, Haji Ghoshan, and Ramyan stations was related to July, but in Nodeh and Tamar stations, it was related to August and February, respectively. A decreasing trend was observed in all stations on a seasonal scale, but this trend was not significant in some seasons. The results of the analysis of change points in discharge showed that the change points in the data used in this study are more of a decreasing and in some cases incremental type and some stations, no change points have been identified at all. Therefore, the number of decreasing changes in the studied hydrometric stations is significantly higher than the incremental changes and is more visible from 1993 to 1997 and 2005-2007 in three and four stations, respectively. Also, the most incremental changes among the stations are related to the Aq Qala station in 2017 with a flow rate of 234 cubic meters per second. Investigation of the flow of the basin in the past decades showed significant monotonic and abrupt changes which are mostly toward decreasing the basin’s discharge. The downward trend in discharge values at different time scales for all hydrometric stations of the Gorganrood watershed, which will be more severe in the future due to global climate change, and increasing the region's water needs for various future use due to population growth and the expansion of industries can also be considered as a serious warning for policymakers, planners, and local managers to prevent a possible water crisis in the region in the future with proper planning.
M. Paritaghinezhad, H.r. Kamali, S. Jamshidi, M. Abdolahipour,
Volume 27, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Abstract
According to the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration and using of water resources, climate change prediction is vital due to water resources management improvement and decreasing damages of drought. The first rank of mango production in Iran belonged to Hormozgan province and the most amount of mango produced in Minab plain. In the present study, the amount of evapotranspiration of mango plants was calculated with FAO Penman-Monteith from 1985 to 2020 using meteorological data at Minab station. The evapotranspiration values of the plant were estimated from 2021 to 2100 with two optimistic and pessimistic scenarios using the last version of CMIP (CMIP6), atmospheric-ocean general circulation models, and performing statistical deviation corrections by the Python software. The results showed that the values of annual evapotranspiration will increase by 0.31 and 1.23 mm on average in the optimistic and pessimistic scenario, respectively in the future due to the increase in annual temperature.
E. Taheri, F. Mousavi, H. Karami,
Volume 27, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Abstract
One of the basic steps in water resources management and planning according to population increase and lack of water resources in Iran is to optimize the use of dam reservoirs. In this research, the effect of meteorological droughts on the optimization of the Aydoghmoush dam reservoir in the northwest of Iran was evaluated by applying metaheuristic algorithms under the impact of future climate change. Three models and two scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP2-8.5 of the sixth IPCC report, and the LARS-WG downscaling model were used for Aydoghmoush dam weather station for the base period (1978-2014) and future periods of 2022-2040 and 2070-2100. The inflow and outflow of the dam, as well as the optimal utilization of the dam reservoir, were evaluated using standalone, and hybrid mode of genetic, slime mold, and ant colony algorithms. Results of the best release scenario (SSP2-8.5) showed that the annual rainfall in the future periods will decrease by 8.9 mm, and 14.5 mm, respectively, compared to the base period. The objective function of optimizing the use of the dam reservoir was defined as minimizing the sum of squared relative deficiencies in each month and maximizing the reliability in the statistical period of 2011-2021. The results showed that in terms of time reliability, vulnerability, and stability, the hybrid slime mold-genetic algorithm was better than other algorithms with values of 0.73, 0.32, and 28.78. Prediction of the dam's inflow and outflow using the hybrid slime mold-genetic algorithm indicated high accuracy compared to other models by 13% and 19% errors, respectively.
A.r. Emadi, R. Fazloula, S. Zamanzad-Ghavidel, R. Sobhani4, S. Nosrat-Akhtar,
Volume 27, Issue 3 (12-2023)
Abstract
As one of the most necessary human needs, groundwater resources play a key role in the economic and political processes of societies. Climatic and land-use changes made serious challenges to the quantity and quality of groundwater resources in the Tehran-Karaj study area. The main objective of the present study is to develop a method based on individual intelligent models, including adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), gene expression programming (GEP), and combined-wavelet (WANFIS, WGEP) methods for temporal and spatial estimation of total hardness (TH), total dissolved solids (TDS), and electrical conductivity (EC) variables in the groundwater resources of the Tehran-Karaj area for statistical period of 17 years (2004-2021). The results showed that
combined-wavelet models have higher performance than individual models in estimating three selected variables. So that the performance improvement percentage of the WANFIS model compared to ANFIS and WGEP model compared to GEP, taking into account the evaluation index of root mean square error (RMSE) were obtained (23.713%, 18.018%), (12.581%, 33.116%), and (6.433%, 12.995%) for TH, TDS, and EC variables, respectively. The results indicated a very high spatial and temporal compatibility of the estimated values of the WGEP model with the observed values for all three qualitative variables in the Tehran-Karaj area. The results showed that the concentration of qualitative variables of groundwater resources from the north to the south of the study area has an upward trend for all three qualitative variables. In urban areas, pollution caused by sewage and population increase, as well as in agricultural areas, the use of chemical fertilizers and their continued infiltration into groundwater resources and
over-extraction of groundwater resources aggravate their pollution. Therefore, in the study area, climatic changes and the type of land use are strongly related to the quality of groundwater resources.
A. Mahdavi, S. Soltani Koopaei, R. Modares, M. Samiei,
Volume 27, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Abstract
Land use changes are one of the main factors in the amount of surface runoff changes in watersheds. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate it to reduce the damages (human and financial) caused by floods and to modify watershed management. The watershed of Nahre Azam is located in the north of Shiraz city and a lot of loss of life and money to the residents of Shiraz due to floods has occurred in previous years. The present research was conducted to investigate the relationship between land use change and runoff in the Nahre Azam watershed in Shiraz using the SWAT model in the period of 2004-2020. The model was calibrated using data from 2004 to 2014 and validated for 2015 to 2020. These images were classified into 6 main land uses using the supervised classification method after performing necessary pre-processing, and a land use map was prepared for 2040 using the Markov chain method. Then, the effect of the land use change in 2003 and 2040 on the amount of simulated runoff was evaluated with the recalibrated model. The calibration results of Nahre Azam watershed for the values of statistical parameters in the calibration step for the coefficient of determination, P-Facor and R-Facor are 0.77, 0.72, and 2.43, respectively, and for the validation step we obtained 0.69, 0.65, and 2.3 respectively. The analysis of the land use map showed that the main land use change in the region related to the conversion of pastures to agricultural land and urban land, which caused a decrease in pastures. Also, the results of the model simulation using the land use maps of 2003 and 2040 indicated that the amount of runoff decreased. The results revealed that if all the uncertainties are minimized, the calibrated SWAT model can produce acceptable hydrological simulation results for the user, which is useful for water resource and environmental managers and politicians as well as city managers of Shiraz.
M. Naderi, V. Sheikh, A. Bahrehmand, C.b. Komaki, A. Ghangermeh,
Volume 27, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Abstract
Greenhouse gases and the occurrence of climate change have occurred with the development of technology and the industrialization of human societies. long-term forecasting of climate parameters has always been interesting due to the importance of climate change for the earth and its inhabitants. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are one of the most widely used methods for evaluating future climate conditions. In the present study, the results of three general circulation models including the American model of GFDL-CM3, the Canadian model of CanESM2, and the Russian model of inmcm4ncml for the study area were evaluated and the CanESM2 model was selected as the superior model. The RCP scenarios 2.6, 4.5, and RCP 8.5 were used with the CanESM2 model to assess climate change conditions across the Hablehroud River basin for the period 2020-2051. According to the results, the total monthly precipitation shows an increasing trend in the coming decades 2020-2051 period compared to the period 1986-2017. The results of the study of temperature changes in the period 2020-2051 in the Hablehroud River basin also indicate an increase in the monthly average of maximum and minimum temperatures in the coming decades. The consequences of these conditions are of great hydrological importance in the study area, this condition necessitates the adoption of climate change adaptation policies in this watershed.
I. Kazemi Roshkhari, A. Asadi Vaighan, M. Azari,
Volume 28, Issue 1 (5-2024)
Abstract
Due to climate change and human activities, the quality and quantity of water have become the most important concern of most of the countries in the world. In addition, changes in land use and climate are known as two important and influential factors in discharge. In this research, four climate change models including
HADGEM2-ES, GISS-E-R, CSIRO-M-K-3-6-0, and CNRM-CM5.0 under two extreme scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 were used as climate change scenarios in the future period of 2020-2050. The future land use scenario (2050) was prepared using the CA-Markov algorithm in IDRISI software using land use maps in 1983 and 2020. The SWAT model was calibrated to better simulate hydrological processes from 1984 to 2012 and validated from 2013 to 2019 and was used to evaluate the separate and combined effects of climate change and land use on discharge. The prediction of the climate change impact on discharge showed a decrease in most of the models under the two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The average maximum decrease and increase under the RCP2.6 scenario is 60 and 30 percent, respectively. This significant reduction is greater than that predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. Examining the combined effects of climate and land use change revealed that the average decrease in discharge in the months of October, November, December, and January under two scenarios is 46.2 and 58%, respectively. The average increase in discharge is predicted to be 47% under the RCP8.5 in the months of April and May in the HadGEM2ES.
B. Moravejalahkami, N.a. Ebrahimipak, S. N. Hosseini,
Volume 28, Issue 2 (8-2024)
Abstract
Evapotranspiration variations (ET0) were investigated and analyzed using Minitab16 software for the 2010-2019 period using the Nizab system's data in Yazd province, and then ET0 was predicted until 2027. Based on the results, the increase of ET0 in cities of Yazd province was affected by the enhancement in wind speed and weather temperature, and the decrease in relative humidity from 2010 to 2019. To determine the appropriate model, Ardakan, Abarkooh, and Taft cities were selected as a representative in each climatic group, and ET0 data for the years 2010 to 2015 were considered as the input data of the software and ET0 data for the years from 2016 to 2019 were used to validate the determined model. The prediction of the determined models showed an increasing trend of ET0 for cold seasons in Ardakan and Abarkoh by 2027. Also, the model prediction showed a decreasing trend of ET0 for hot seasons in Taft by 2027. Also, the ET0 will not change significantly in cold seasons. In Abarkoh and Ardakan cities, autumn-spring crops such as wheat and in Taft city, spring-summer crops such as sunflower will be more affected by ET0 variations.
M.j. Aghasi, S.a.r. Mousavi, M. Tarkesh, S. Soltani,
Volume 28, Issue 3 (10-2024)
Abstract
Astragalus is the vegetation of many mountains of Iran's plateau and plays a major role in providing ecosystem services due to its pillow shape and deep rooting system, they facilitate the control and penetration of precipitation into the soil. The correlation of Astragalus ecosystems with arid and semi-arid climates has made them vulnerable to climate change. In this study, a runoff yield map based on the Budyco curve under current and future conditions of climate change (2050) was prepared using climate and temperature data from the Chelsea site (CanESM2 GCM) in TerrSet software and by using maps of sub-watersheds, annual precipitation, annual potential evapotranspiration, soil depth, plant accessible water and the current and future "Land Cover - Land Use" map, with a combination of field methods and species distribution models at the local scale of the Shur River watershed of Dehaghan (Central Zagros). Finally, the excess runoff damage produced due to climate change was estimated using the replacement cost method. The results indicated an increase in the annual runoff volume of the watershed from 70 million cubic meters to 105 million cubic meters under climate change conditions for the RCP26 scenario in 2050. Taking into account the cost of 10 million Rials for controlling 530 cubic meters of runoff through various watershed management projects, preventing the damages of excess runoff produced requires a credit amounting to 660 billion Rials based on the present value. This study proved the ability of TerrSet software to predict and produce an ecosystem service map of runoff yield under climate changes or land use changes and with the purpose of valuation on a local scale. Also, the above valuation can be the basis for planning and providing credit for the study and implementation of watershed management projects to deal with the threats of climate change.
M.j. Zareian, R. Seraj Ebrahimi, H. Dehban,
Volume 28, Issue 3 (10-2024)
Abstract
In the present study, the impact of climate change on maximum temperature and daily precipitation in 16 weather stations was investigated in the Sefidrood Basin from 2023 to 2052. 10 AOGCM models related to the sixth IPCC Assessment Report (CMIP6) were ranked based on their ability to simulate temperature and precipitation in the historical period (1980 to 2014). Then, the maximum temperature and daily precipitation outputs of the best model at each weather station were extracted using the LARS-WG downscaling model under three emission scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 from 2023 to 2052. The Mann-Kendall test (95% confidence level) was also used to investigate the trend of changes in the average maximum temperature and maximum daily precipitation. The results showed that different AOGCMs have different accuracies in simulating temperature and precipitation in different regions of the basin, and their accuracies in simulating temperature were better than simulating precipitation. In general, the IPSL-CM6A-LR and HadGEM3-GC31-LL models had the best performance in simulating maximum temperature and precipitation, respectively. Results also indicated that the mean maximum temperature will increase between 0.9 and 2.8 °C in different emission scenarios. Also, the mean maximum daily precipitation will change between -8.6 and 7.17 mm in different emission scenarios.
Y. Sabzevari, S. Eslamian,
Volume 28, Issue 4 (12-2024)
Abstract
This study aims to investigate the possibility of hydrological simulation of the Azna-Aligoudarz area, which is located in the upper reaches of Karoun Bozorg basin and in the east of Lorestan province. To carry out this research, the daily meteorological data related to the Aligoudarz synoptic station and the rainfall of Kamandan and Dareh Takht rain gauge stations in the period of 1991-2023, the observational discharge related to the Marbareh hydrometric station in the period of 1991-2021, soil map, land use and digital elevation map of Azna-Aligoudarz basin was used. The period of 1991 and 1992 was considered for warm up the model, the validation period from 1993 to 2016, and the validation period from 2017 to 2021. Based on the simulation done in this area, the model had weakness in simulation. After the initial simulation, the model was calibrated. After analyzing the sensitivity of different parameters, 22 effective parameters were selected and the model was calibrated. The evaluation results showed that the NSE value of 0.60 and 0.56 and the R2 coefficient value of 0.61 and 0.78 respectively were obtained for the calibration and validation stages. Based on the coefficients obtained in both calibration and validation stages, it was found that the model had a satisfactory accuracy in the hydrological simulation of Azna-Aligoudarz area.
H. Ramezani Etedali, S. Koohi,
Volume 29, Issue 1 (4-2025)
Abstract
Agriculture, as a crucial economic and social sector in Iran, has always been significantly influenced by weather conditions, water availability, and farm management practices. Enhancing productivity and optimizing resource management in crop production are essential to achieving sustainable agricultural development and ensuring food security. This research aimed to investigate how much wheat, barley, and corn production, separately from irrigated and rainfed crops, will be affected by the severity of climatic drought (based on the CMIP6) in Iran. This research was carried out using the amount of wheat, barley, and corn production in all the provinces, which was provided by the Agricultural Jihad Organization during the years 1371 to 1402. Climate data was obtained from the NEX-GDDP database, and the De Martonne aridity index was calculated to investigate changes in aridity under climate scenarios. The results indicated that during the baseline period, the production of rainfed wheat, barley, and corn under semi-arid to very arid climatic conditions was approximately 2,076, 434, and 15 thousand tons per year, respectively. With the intensification of arid conditions across the country, these production levels are projected to increase to 3,333, 693, and 16 thousand tons under the SSP2 scenario and further rise to 3,558, 842, and 16 thousand tons under the SSP5 scenario. Additionally, the production of irrigated wheat, barley, and corn in semi-arid to very arid climatic conditions during the baseline period stands at approximately 6,240, 1,683, and 5,842 thousand tons, respectively. Under the SSP2 climate scenario, the production is expected to reach about 7,126, 1,757, and 6,253 thousand tons, while in the SSP5 scenario, the estimated production is approximately 7,348, 1,780, and 6,324 thousand tons. The findings revealed notable spatial differences in crop production across the country, highlighting that the climatic conditions, particularly in the central, southern, southeastern, and southwestern regions, are becoming increasingly arid. It is crucial to implement smart planning and policies, adopt advanced technologies, and improve the management of water and soil resources to mitigate the adverse impacts of these changes and better adapt to evolving conditions. Addressing these challenges and implementing effective measures are essential steps toward achieving sustainability in the agriculture and natural resources sectors.
B. Naderi-Samani, M. Ghobadinia1, B. Haghighati, S.m.r. Hosseini-Vardanjani, A.r. Ahmadpour-Samani,
Volume 29, Issue 1 (4-2025)
Abstract
Awareness of the impact of water deficit stress on the quantitative and qualitative performance of agricultural products, considering the recent recurrent droughts and reduced precipitation, is essential for water consumption management. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of different irrigation deficit treatments on the yield, yield components, and water use efficiency of autumn wheat in the Shahrekord region. An experiment with three replications was conducted in a completely randomized block design at the Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center of Chaharmahal Va Bakhtiari Province during 2023-2024. The experimental treatments included four irrigation levels: full irrigation (T100), 80% of full irrigation (T80), 60% of full irrigation (T60), and 40% of full irrigation (T40). The application of the T60 deficit irrigation treatment resulted in a reduction of more than 14% in grain yield, while the T80 treatment caused a more than 31% decrease in grain yield. Additionally, the T60 treatment exhibited the highest water use efficiency at 1.22 kg per cubic meter, while the water use efficiency for the T100, T80, and T40 treatments was 1.06, 1.12, and 1.19 kg per cubic meter, respectively. The results showed that water deficit irrigation significantly affected the grain yield, biomass, and water use efficiency of autumn wheat under the climatic conditions of the Shahrekord region. The results of this study indicated that the T80 deficit irrigation treatment could have a more acceptable performance in terms of water efficiency.
Sanaz Moghim, Amirabbas Samavaki,
Volume 29, Issue 4 (12-2025)
Abstract
The effect of climate change on agricultural productivity and efficiency is a major concern and challenge for the agricultural industry. Different hydrometeorological variables, such as extreme temperature, precipitation, and their variations, affect the growth and yield of agricultural products. Saffron is one of the most important agricultural products in Iran. Iran produces the largest amount of Saffron globally, and Hamadan Province is one of the major saffron-producing regions in Iran. This study uses different Artificial Intelligence methods not only for clustering and sensitivity analysis of the hydroclimatological variables but also for evaluating the impacts of climate change on Saffron yield in Hamadan Province. Results indicated that the Random Forest algorithm performs the best for sensitivity analysis among all algorithms. Extreme climate change indices, particularly those related to the monthly maximum and minimum temperatures, have the highest negative impact on saffron yield compared to other hydroclimatological indices. Furthermore, the minimum temperature has a more significant negative impact on saffron yield compared to the maximum temperature. Additionally, the counties of Malayer, Nahavand, and Asadabad, located in the south and west of Hamadan Province, exhibited the highest accuracy in sensitivity analysis. The findings suggest that monthly extreme temperatures can be used to assess the risk of saffron production, increase agricultural productivity, and improve decision-making for the cultivation of this product.
