Showing 42 results for Land Use
M. Mokhtari, A. Najafi,
Volume 19, Issue 72 (8-2015)
Abstract
Land use classification and mapping mostly use remotely sensed data. During the past decades, several advanced classification methods such as neural network and support vector machine (SVM) have been developed. In the present study, Landsat TM images with 30m spatial resolution were used to classify land uses through two classification methods including support vector machine and neural network. The results showed that SVM and neural network with the total accuracy of 90.67 % and 91.67% are superior. SVM had a better performance in separating classes with similar spectral profiles. In addition, SVM showed a better performance in delineating class borders in comparison with neural network method. In summary, both SVM and neural network showed satisfactory results but the method of support vector machine proved better with a difference of 1% and 2% in overall accuracy and kappa coefficient, respectively. This was an expected outcome because SVMs are designed to locate an optimal separating hyperplane, while ANNs may not be able to locate this separating hyperplane.
A. Talebi, F. Souzandehpour, M. T. Dastorani, A. A. Karimian, M. Soltani,
Volume 19, Issue 72 (8-2015)
Abstract
Land use is one of the basic factors for controlling the hydrologic behavior of watersheds. Therefore, it is generally assumed that land use change is the cause of variation in hydrological dynamic of watersheds. In this paper, the land use effect in present and optimum conditions on sedimentation of watershed was studied using GIS and applying the HEC-HM model in Shoor-Shirin watershed in Fars province. Land use map was provided based on curve number map, and this map was considered as the important factor for HEC-HM model. The results showed that the estimated sediments in two different conditions were completely different. In fact, the estimated sediment in the optimum condition was 12% less than the current land use. This means that land use change and land use type play important roles in decreasing or increasing the peak flow and erosion.
S. Youneszadeh Jalili, M. Kamali, P. Daneshkar Arasteh,
Volume 20, Issue 78 (1-2017)
Abstract
Integrated management of watershed basins depends on deep knowledge of basic concepts such as the arrangement of lands and their uses. Location and distribution of agricultural land use help to balance water resources in the watershed basins. In this research with the help of satellite images of Landsat 5 and 8, and the method of maximum likelihood classification algorithm, land use types of water, barren areas and salt lands, and irrigated agriculture were studied in the Urmia watershed in the years 2010 and 2013.Then applications of modis images and product Urmia watershed land cover for years 2010 and 2012 were compared and finally modis and Landsat land covers in 2010 were compared. Results showed that the area of irrigated farmlands of Urmia basin has increased in the years between 2010 and 2013; while, the water zone has declined. Comparison between modis and landsat in 2010 showed that modis can estimate irrigated lands and water zone better than barren areas. The kappa coefficient for years 2010 and 2013 in Landsat images are 0/77 and 0/87, respectively.
M. Zarea Khormizi, A. Kavian, K. Soleimani, K. Nosrati,
Volume 21, Issue 2 (8-2017)
Abstract
Obtaining information about relative importance of sediment sources and their contributions on sediment production and thus identification of on-site critical areas is required for implementing soil and water conservations and sediment control programs. For this reason, in this study 35 geochemical tracers and organic carbon were measured in 45 samples of sediment sources and in 11 watershed sediment samples to determine the sediment deposit contribution of each land use as sediment resources in Kond watershed of Tehran province. Based on the results of Kruskal-Wallis test, from among 35 measured traces, 10 tracers including Al, As, Be, Ca, Mo, P, Pb, S, Zn and OC had ability to discriminate sediment sources with less than 1% confidence level. Then, 5 tracers: OC, S, P, Zn and As were selected as optimum composite using Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA) with 0.000 confidence coefficient that had distinguishing capability of sediment sources by 97.8% correct assignation. Finally, the results of multivariate mixing model showed that contribution means of orchard, range and residential were 1.54, 14.27 and 84.18% in sediment production, respectively. Also, the sum of squares of the error was 0.33. The results of this study can be used in selecting an appropriate method for sediment control in studied area.
E. Chavoshi, M. Afyuni, M. A. Hajabbasi,
Volume 22, Issue 2 (9-2018)
Abstract
This study covers a large agricultural and industrial area of Isfahan province, including three types of land use, i.e., agricultural, uncultivated, industrial and urban types. A total of 275 samples from surface soil (0-20 cm) were collected and water soluble fluoride concentrations of them were measured. The spatial structure of water soluble fluoride in the soils was determined by omnidirectional variogram in the GS+ software. The spatial distribution of water soluble fluoride in the soil was mapped by employing the point kriging method in the SURFER software. The results showed that the mean of the water soluble fluoride concentration in Isfahan soils (0.85 mg L-1) was higher than the mean world soils (0.53 mg L-1). The water soluble fluoride showed moderate spatial dependence, indicating that the spatial variability of water soluble fluoride was mainly controlled by intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The mean water soluble fluoride concentration was significantly higher in agricultural and urban areas, as compared with the uncultivated land. This could be due to application of phosphate fertilizer in agricultural areas and the atmospheric fallout of fluoride from the industrial sources such as steel factories. According to the generated kriging map, the higher concentration of fluoride was mainly recorded around the Zayande Rood River and in the central and western parts of the study area.
A. Ashraf Amirinejad, S. Ghotbi,
Volume 22, Issue 2 (9-2018)
Abstract
The soil quality is defined as the ability of soil to function as an essential part of the human habitat. In this study, the effects of land use change (conversion of forest lands into agricultural lands) on the soil physical quality were studied in the Gilan-e-Gharb region. For this study, soil samples were collected from surface and subsurface layers of both land uses, and the peak and shoulder slope positions, in Miandar and Vidjanan catchments. Soil physical properties such as soil texture and particle size distribution, soil hydraulic conductivity, bulk density, mean weight diameter of aggregates, water holding capacity, and the soil organic carbon content were measured. The results showed that land use change of the forest to agricultural lands resulted in a sharp decline in the soil organic matter (52%) and an increase in silt and sand percentage and soil bulk density. Also, deforestation decreased the mean weight diameter of aggregates (from 0.39 to 0.14 mm in Miandar) and clay percent. It caused a reduction in the total porosity followed by a decrease of soil water holding capacity, and a decrease in the saturated hydraulic conductivity (from 10.34 to 1.86 cm/h), as well. In general, the results proved that the land use change from forest to agriculture severely decreased soil physical quality and its productivity.
A. Norouzi, M. Ansari, M. Moazami, N. Asgharipour Dasht Bozorg,
Volume 23, Issue 3 (12-2019)
Abstract
In recent decades, land use changes have been one of the most important environmental issues worldwide. This study was carried out to investigate and analyse land use changes in dust sources of south and south-east Ahwaz and surrounding lands using remote sensing technique. Firstly, based on the standard precipitation index (SPI), the years 1986, 2002 and 2016 were selected as years with near normal situation. In the next step, land use maps of the study area were extracted using a Landsat satellite images and supervised classification methods. MNDWI index was used to increase the accuracy of image classification. In order to evaluate the efficiency of each method, the overall accuracy and kappa coefficient were used. Finally, to investigate land use change a post-classification comparison method was employed. According to research findings, in the first period (1986-2002), the area of vegetation, wet land with vegetation and water bodies have increased by 419%, 219% and 40.7%, respectively, in contrast, the area of barren and poor range has reduced by 36.6%. One of the major causes of these changes is human factors such as population growth and climate variables such as proper amounts of precipitation. In the second period (2002-2016), the area of wet land with vegetation, water bodies and vegetation has been decreased by 94%, 49.3% and 46.7%, respectively; in contrast, barren and poor range land has been increased by 45.4%. Recent droughts increase the temperature and incorrect and non-principled management of water resources has been effective in reducing green cover and water bodies and increasing in bare land. The results show that, during the three decades, built-up land has been increased by 157%, while River bed has decreased by 28.8%. These results indicate a total degradation in the region due to climate change and human activities.
A. R. Vaezi, Sh. Karimi, M. Foroumadi,
Volume 23, Issue 4 (12-2019)
Abstract
Rainfall erosion is the first type of water erosion on the land which is affected by various factors such as land use change and previous rainfall. This study was carried out to investigate the influence of previous rainfalls on the process of rainfall erosion in two marl soils (pasture and that changed to agriculture) under the simulated rainfall. Toward this goal, aggregate samples with the diameters of 6 to 8 mm were randomly collected from the marl areas in the west of Zanjan. Soil aggregates were packed into 48 boxes with the dimension of 30×40 cm to examine the effects of eight rainfall durations with three replications. Eight simulated rainfalls with the duration of 0, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42 and 49 min and a constant intensity of 40 mm h-1 were used in the experiment. The soils were exposed to another simulated rainfall with 40 mm h-1 in terms of intensity for 15 min to study the rainfall erosion processes. The results showed that the aggregate breakdown was significantly affected by the previous rainfalls in the pasture soil (P<0.01), while there was no significant difference among the previous rainfalls in the case of agriculture soil. Soil compaction and particles splash were significantly affected by previous rainfalls (P<0.05). Aggregate breakdown and particles splash were 1.41 and 1.31 times bigger than their values in the pasture soil. This study, therefore, revealed that the land use change in the mal areas increases the soil vulnerability to rainfall erosion processes. The rate of rainfall erosion processes in each rainfall event depends on the amount of previous rainfall. Increasing aggregate break down and soil water content by the previous rainfall could significantly influence the splash erosion rate in a marl soil.
S. Mehri Babadi, M. Afyuni, Sh. Ayoubi,
Volume 24, Issue 1 (5-2020)
Abstract
For sustainable soil management, the effects of slope position and land use change on soil and water resources are essential. In this research, three land uses including degraded pasture, drought and apple gardens were selected to determine the effect of slope position and land use on some physical and chemical properties of soil in the Koohrang area of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. Each of the applications was divided according to the position of the slope, and from three applications and organic matter (OM), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), water repellency (RI), dispersible clay (DC) and weighted average aggregate diameter (MWD) were studied as the physical and chemical properties of soil. The results showed that Ks had the greatest coefficient of variation. Also, the results of the mean comparison revealed that all of the measured physical and chemical properties had a significant difference in different slope applications and positions at 5% level. In general, the garden and the base position of the slope had better qualitative conditions than other land uses and slope positions. Rangeland degradation and change in the use of pasture from dryland cultivation led to a decrease in soil quality, which could reduce soil utilization and exhaust some of the land from the production cycle. The results of the correlation between chemical and physical properties of soil showed that in general soil organic matter had the highest correlation with other parameters.
M. Pajoohesh, M. Mohammad Yousefi, A. Honarbakhsh, H. R. Reyahi Bakhtyari,
Volume 24, Issue 1 (5-2020)
Abstract
In order to plan and manage the land and its changes, it is necessary to identify and evaluate the factors affecting it. Land use / cover changes are one of the main factors in global environmental change that is defined as a change in the type of land use; it is one of the major factors changing hydrologic flow, land erosion and destruction of biodiversity. The main purpose of this study was to assess the trends of land use changes in Beheshtabad Watershed of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province with an area about 3847 square kilometers by using remote sensing and GIS during a 25-year period. In this research, first, analyzing and pre-processing the satellite images of Landsat 5 TM sensors from 1991 and 2008 were done, and Landsat 8 of OLI sensor of 2016 was applied. Then, by using the hybrid classification method, 5 land use classes including pasture lands, urban-building lands, agricultural lands, garden lands and bare lands, land use maps for the three time periods were prepared. The overall accuracy of the obtained land use maps for 1991, 2008 and 2016, was 92.17%, 94.29% and 93.41%, respectively, indicating the acceptable accuracy of the maps. Then, the process of land use change and the contribution of each land use classes and the percentage of changes in each land use class were determined in two study periods. The results of this study showed some changes occurred in the studied watershed. The total area of pasture lands during two periods indicated the decreasing trend, but urban-building and garden lands during two periods represented the increasing one. Agricultural lands during the first period indicated the decreasing trend and during the second period showed the increasing trend, while bare lands during the first period showed the increasing trend and during the second period, reflected the decreasing trend. In general, it should be noted that in the Beheshtabad watershed, we could see an increase in the replacement of pastures by urban-building class, rainfed agriculture, gardens, and bare lands, the incidence of destruction in the region.
H. Mahmoudpour, S. Janatrostami, A. Ashrafzadeh,
Volume 24, Issue 3 (11-2020)
Abstract
Given the fact that the DRASTIC index is ineffective in addressing the saltwater uprising issue in coastal plains, in the present study, three factors including land use, distance to shoreline, and differences between groundwater and sea level were added to the DRASTIC index. The proposed modification to DRASTIC was validated using the measured electrical conductivity (EC) data gathered from groundwater monitoring wells throughout the Talesh Plain. The results showed that the coefficient of correlation between the map of EC over the region and the modified DRASTIC was 0.52, while for the original DRASTIC, the coefficient was 0.45, thereby implying a stronger relationship between EC and the modified DRASTIC in the Talesh Plain. Sensitivity analysis also showed that DRASTIC and the modified DRASTIC were the most sensitive to, respectively, depth to groundwater (D) and land use (Lu). According to the single-parameter sensitivity analysis results, depth to water table and net recharge were the most effective parameters in DRASTIC, whereas the modified DRASTIC was the most sensitive to land use and depth to groundwater. It could be concluded that modifying the DRASTIC index would result in decreasing the area of very high and high vulnerable classes, and the area classified as low and moderate vulnerable could be increased.
M. Pajouhesh, H. Shekohideh, Z. Heydari,
Volume 25, Issue 3 (12-2021)
Abstract
Land use changes identifying to assess and monitor sensitive areas for sustainable planning and land management is essential. Remote sensing and the use of GIS technology as some of the most common methods in the world in monitoring land changes, especially, in the study of large areas. In this study, the trend of spatial land use changes in the area of Karun 3 dam was investigated. in the before and after the construction periods and dam intake using remote sensing and GIS over 27 years. In this study, the satellite imagery of Landsat 5 TM sensors from 1991 and 2008 and Landsat 8 OLI sensors in 2018 were analyzed and processed. Using object-oriented classification with land use maps for the three periods 1991, 2008, and 2018 with the overall accuracy of the Kappa index of 0.93 and 0.89 percent for 1991, 0.94, and 0.88 percent in 2008 and 0.93, respectively, and 0.86% in 2018 was prepared. The results showed that the water use of the region with an area of 37.68 square kilometers is increasing and agricultural lands and residential areas with an area of 1349.04 and 226.56, respectively, forest lands with an area of 1041.49 remained as the dominant cover of the region and rangelands by going through a decreasing trend of increase in both periods after forest use, with an area of 878.87, they had the largest area. According to the obtained results, it can be said that the construction of the Karun 3 dam has caused the flooding of agricultural lands and their conversion to another use, as a result of which the villagers were forced to migrate due to losing their jobs and abandoned residential areas become other uses.
M. Sayadi, H. Khosravi, S. Zareh, Kh. Ahmadali, S. Bagheri,
Volume 25, Issue 3 (12-2021)
Abstract
Desertification is a phenomenon that has more destructive effects in arid, semi-arid, and semi-humid regions than in other regions. This paper tries to provide a map of the future of desertification in Tehran Province, for futurism in the face of land degradation and desertification. The IMDPA model was used to evaluate land degradation and desertification. To use this model and evaluate desertification, three criteria of groundwater including groundwater depletion, electrical conductivity, and sodium adsorption ratio indices, climate criterion including precipitation, aridity, and drought indices, and land use criteria were selected as key criteria effected on desertification according to regional conditions. Land use index map with IGBP standard and zoning map of other indicators were prepared by IDW method for 2011 and 2016. The maps of land use index and other indices were predicted using the CA-Markov model in TerrSet software, and using the RBF method in artificial neural network toolbox, respectively. Scoring based on the IMDPA model, the maps of indices and criteria maps were prepared for 2011, 2016, and 2021. Finally, the desertification intensity map was calculated by geometric averaging for all three criteria for all three time periods. The results showed that 59.78% and 40.22% of the area of Tehran Province were in the low and medium classes, respectively. However, in 2016, the area of the medium class has increased to a 44.8%, and it is predicted that this increase will continue until 2021 so that 47.65% of the area of Tehran Province will be in the medium class. In addition, in this year, about 1% of the area of Tehran Province will be allocated to the high class in the western regions, which did not exist in the previous two periods. In general, due to human activities, the intensity of desertification in the western and southern parts of the province is higher than in the eastern and northern regions.
A. Malekian1, A.a. Jafarazdeh, Sh. Oustan, M. Servati,
Volume 26, Issue 2 (9-2022)
Abstract
To study the soil-landscape change in the Chaldoran region, 9 representative soil profiles were studied in 5 dominant geomorphic units of the study area including piedmont plain, mantled pediment, alluvial fan, plain, and flood plain. The results showed that the accumulation of pedogenic carbonate in some soils was concretion and light in color. In control soils in the piedmont plain (profile 5 and 7), mantled pediment (profile 6), and flood plain (profile 8) clay transferred from the surface horizons and accumulated in the lower horizon, due to relatively good rainfall in the region and distinct dry and wet seasons has led to the formation of argillic horizons along with the formation of crust on the surfaces of aggregates and building units and has formed the Alfisoils order. Mineralogical results showed the presence of chlorite, illite, kaolinite, and smectite minerals. According to the evidence, illite, chlorite, and kaolinite minerals were inherited and smectite minerals were formed due to weathering and evolution of illite, chlorite, or palygorskite minerals. Also, the results of the CIA index in the region indicated that the soils of the region are in the stage of weak to moderate weathering. In general, the results indicated the critical role of drainage, land use, and parent materials in the soils of the study area.
H. Ahmadzadeh, A. Fakheri Fard, Mohammad Ali Ghorbani, M. Tajrishy,
Volume 26, Issue 3 (12-2022)
Abstract
Determining the actual evapotranspiration value and analyzing its temporal trend is essential for optimal water resources management in a basin. In the present paper, the actual evapotranspiration time series is simulated and its trend is analyzed according to the trend of climatic variables and land use in the Ajichi basin during the period of 2015-1987. The comprehensive SWAT model was set up, calibrated, and validated for the Ajichi basin. Also, the average of simulated actual evapotranspiration of crops (in wet years) was compared with similar values in the National Water Document. The results of the Mann-Kendall trend test showed that the annual rainfall in most meteorological stations had a decreasing trend and the rainfall trend in the ten stations decreased significantly. While the annual maximum temperature at all stations and the annual minimum temperature in most of them have significantly increased. Investigation of land use maps illustrated that the irrigated land area of the basin has increased by a 39% during the study period. According the study's results, the potential evapotranspiration of the basin has had a significant increasing trend with a rate of 2.54 mm per year. The results indicated that despite the increasing trend of potential evapotranspiration and irrigated land area, the actual evapotranspiration of the basin had a significant decreasing trend with a rate of 2.2 mm per year due to the decrease in rainfall.
M. Hayatzadeh, M. Eshghizadeh, V. ,
Volume 26, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Abstract
The land use change as well as changes in climatic parameters such as temperature increase affect many natural processes such as soil erosion and sediment production, floods, and degradation of physical and chemical properties of soil. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to different aspects of the effect of these changes in studies and macro decisions of the country. In the present study, the SWAT conceptual model was used to test and analyze the existing scenarios in the Marvast basin. After calibrating the model, the two scenarios were tested. The first scenario is in the field of agricultural management and conversion of gardens to agricultural lands and the second scenario is a 0.5-degree increase in temperature by assuming other conditions are constant. The calibration and validation results of the model with the Nash-Sutcliffe test showed 0.66 and 0.68 respectively, which indicate the acceptable performance of the model in the study area. Then, the results of using two scenarios of land use change and heating, especially in recent years showed the effect of 30 percent of the climate scenario on the increase of flooding in the basin. The scenario of changing the use of garden lands to agriculture in two cases of 20% and 50% change of use of 10% and 12% was added to the flooding of the basin. The results indicate that in similar areas of the study area which is located in a dry climate zone, a possible increase in temperature can have a significant effect on flooding in the basin. However, the indirect impact of the human factor in increasing greenhouse gases and flooding in the basin should not be ignored.
N. Moradian Paik, S. Jafari,
Volume 26, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Abstract
Changes in land quality factors were investigated according to the change in land use of two conventional cropping systems in Khuzestan (Dimcheh region, periodic cultivation system, sugarcane, forest, and deforesting in Zaras region). The results showed that by the change of forest land use, organic carbon from 0.93 to 0.55%, cation exchange capacity (CEC) from 19.6 to 13.3 cmol/kg, C/N from 7.4 to 3.8%, the mean weight diameter of aggregate (MWD) from 1.7 to 1.3%, and microbial respiration from 0.11 to 0.06 mg of CO2 /gr of soil per day decreased and in contrast, the dispersible clay from 4.6 to 19.3% increased. PCA analysis for the parameters showed that five factors justified more than 90% of the variance in the values of FC, PWP, AW, and AF. In the Dimcheh region, the average volumetric moisture content of FC from 31.3% to 27.3%, available water from 12.9% to 9.8%, dispersible clay from 56.1% to 12.3%, and bulk density reduced from 1.6 to 1.4%, organic carbon from 0.45 to 0.78%, C/N from 6.3 to 10.0%, microbial respiration from 0.01 to 0.04 mg of CO2 /gr soil per day and MWD of aggregates increased from 0.77 to 1.3 mm. Five factors including FC, AW, BD, DC, and OM explained more than 90% of the variance.
Y. Esmaeli, F. Yosefvand, S. Shabanlou, M.a. Izadbakhsh,
Volume 27, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Abstract
The objective of the current study was to zone flood probability in the Marzdaran watershed. Since the allocated budget for management work is limited and it is not possible to carry out operations in the whole area, having a map that has prioritized different areas in terms of the probability of flood occurrence will be very useful and necessary. A well-known data mining model namely MaxEnt (ME) is applied due to its robust computational algorithm. Flood inventories are gathered through several field surveys using local information and available organizational resources, and the corresponding map is created in the geographic information system. The twelve predisposing variables are selected and the corresponding maps are generated in the geographic information system by reviewing several studies. The area under the curve (ROC) is used to evaluate the modeling results. Then, the most prone areas of flood occurrence which are prioritized for management operations are identified based on the prepared map. Based on the results, about 100 km2 of the study area is identified as the most prone area for management operations. The results showed that the accuracy of the maximum entropy model is 98% in the training phase and 95% in the validation phase. The distance from the river, drainage density, and topographic wetness index are identified as the most effective factors in the occurrence of floods, respectively.
B. Ebrahimi, M. Pasandi, H. Nilforoushan,
Volume 27, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Abstract
The different land uses in the irrigation water area of the eleven streams of Khansar city during 1969, 1995, 2014, and 2019 have been identified and their area has been determined by analysis of the aerial photos as well as the satellite images of QuickBird, and Landsat in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment. Then, the net and gross areas of land under irrigation water, area of non-agricultural land uses, location and area of agricultural land uses under irrigation of the streams are separated according to the type of agricultural activity (orchard or farmland) for each stream. Aerial photos of the study area dated 1969 are the basis for the assessment of agricultural conditions before the law of Fair Water Allocation. The results showed that non-agricultural and particularly urban and residential land uses have increased since 1969. In other words, land use of part of the agricultural lands has been changed to residential and urban land uses. Despite the decreasing trend of agricultural land uses in the last 50 years, these changes have not been the same between the farm and orchard land uses and the area under orchard plantation showed an increasing trend. These changes have dramatically influenced on water demand of the streams. Land use has not significantly changed from 2014 to 2019 and no noticeable change was observed in the area of the agricultural and green agricultural lands as well as the percentage of the orchard and farming lands during these years. The results of this study confirmed the significant changes in agricultural land use and consequently water consumption in the district of the eleven streams of Khansar in recent decades. This study also highlighted the high efficiency of the combined use of aerial photos, spectral satellite images with medium spatial resolution, and visible spectral satellite data with high spectral resolution, as well as using cloud system capabilities of the Google Earth Engine to study changes in agricultural land uses during last decades.
A. Mahdavi, S. Soltani Koopaei, R. Modares, M. Samiei,
Volume 27, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Abstract
Land use changes are one of the main factors in the amount of surface runoff changes in watersheds. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate it to reduce the damages (human and financial) caused by floods and to modify watershed management. The watershed of Nahre Azam is located in the north of Shiraz city and a lot of loss of life and money to the residents of Shiraz due to floods has occurred in previous years. The present research was conducted to investigate the relationship between land use change and runoff in the Nahre Azam watershed in Shiraz using the SWAT model in the period of 2004-2020. The model was calibrated using data from 2004 to 2014 and validated for 2015 to 2020. These images were classified into 6 main land uses using the supervised classification method after performing necessary pre-processing, and a land use map was prepared for 2040 using the Markov chain method. Then, the effect of the land use change in 2003 and 2040 on the amount of simulated runoff was evaluated with the recalibrated model. The calibration results of Nahre Azam watershed for the values of statistical parameters in the calibration step for the coefficient of determination, P-Facor and R-Facor are 0.77, 0.72, and 2.43, respectively, and for the validation step we obtained 0.69, 0.65, and 2.3 respectively. The analysis of the land use map showed that the main land use change in the region related to the conversion of pastures to agricultural land and urban land, which caused a decrease in pastures. Also, the results of the model simulation using the land use maps of 2003 and 2040 indicated that the amount of runoff decreased. The results revealed that if all the uncertainties are minimized, the calibrated SWAT model can produce acceptable hydrological simulation results for the user, which is useful for water resource and environmental managers and politicians as well as city managers of Shiraz.
