JWSS - Journal of Water and Soil Science

The upcoming climate change has become a serious concern for the human society. These changes, caused and aggravated by the industrial activities of the international community and the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, are seen as a threat to the food security and environment. Temperature change and precipitation are studied in the form of different probabilistic scenarios in order to have an outlook for the future. The present study was conducted to address the effects of climate changes on temperature and precipitation in Qazvin plain in the form of five AOGCMs including Hadcm3, CSIRO-MK3, GFDL, CGCM3 and MICROC3.2, and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1, based on different possible scenario combinations in the next 30 years, 2021-2050 and 2051-2080 (near and far future). On basis of the study results, all 4 target stations, on average, will have experienced a change between two ratios of 0.5 and 1.4 of  the observed precipitation period  by the end of 2050, and the mean temperature will have had a change  between -0.1 to 1.6 °C, relative to the observed period.  By the end of 2080,  the  precipitation will also have fluctuated between the two proportions of 0.5 and 1.7 times of the observed precipitation period and the mean temperature will touch an increase between 0.6 and 2.6 °C. Both SPI and SPEI indices suggest the increment in the number of dry periods in the near and far future. However, the total number of negative sequences differed considering the 3, 12 and 24-month intervals at the stations level. Given the SPEI index, as compared to the base period, the total negative sequences of drought and number of dry periods will increase at 3 stations of Avaj, Bagh-Kowsar and Shahid-rajaei-powerhouse and decrease at Qazvin station in the future; however, SPI gives different results, such that  for Bagh-Kowsar, there will be an increase in both total negative sequences of drought and number of dry periods, as  compared to the baseline period; three other stations will have more dry periods, specifically, but less total negative sequences. The results reported that the drought events would become severe, and the wet events would become extreme in the future.

Due to the environmental problems caused by wind erosion, it is necessary to stabilize the dust centers with mulches. The objective of the present study was to determine and compare the optimum vinasse mulches based on mechanical indicators for sensitive soil stabilization to wind erosion. In this research, vinasse (0, 100, 200 g) is combined with bagasse (0, 25, 50 g), ash bagasse (0, 25, 50 g), filtercake (0, 12.5, 25 g), and one-liter water (81 treatments). At first, the treatments were determined in the appropriate range of salinity and acidity (35 treatments) and in the next step, the mechanical indicators have been measured after mulching on laboratory trays (2×30×100 cm). Optimum mulches have been determined based on five indicators by mean comparison (Duncan). The mean comparison showed that treatments 33, 30, 34, 32, and 19 show the mean difference between the groups based on layer thickness, impact resistance, compressive strength, and shear strength properly. It can be concluded that vinasse (100 and 200 g) with 50 g bagasse reduces the crack coefficient greatly, and the application of vinasse, bagasse, and filtercake does not affect the compressive strength and impact resistance.

In the present paper, crop pattern criteria have been evaluated relying on sustainable development to increase agricultural water productivity. Seven criteria were selected as the main environmental and economic criteria and were prioritized and reviewed for important and strategic products in the Tajan catchment of Mazandaran province. Criteria prioritization was done using optimization through a genetic algorithm with an objective function based on sustainable development. Then, physical and economic productivity indices were calculated to determine the productivity value. Based on the results, in the selection of the crop pattern, firstly, the category of economic criteria and finally the category of environmental criteria have been given attention to the farmers in the current situation. But in the genetic optimization algorithm, all priorities have a similar order from the environmental point of view and then from the economic point of view although each product has its order of criteria. By this prioritization, the parameters of the cultivated area, the volume of water consumed, and the amount of chemical fertilizers have decreased on average by 26%, 34%, and 21%, respectively, and the parameters of product performance and profitability have increased by 43% and 61%, respectively. In addition to providing environmental standards and increasing sustainable development, this prioritization causes an average increase in physical productivity by 84% and an increase in economic productivity by 72%.