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Evaluation of New Drought Index of SPDI (Standardized Palmer Drought Index) in Chaharmahal-Va-Bakhtiari Province
F. Saniesales, S. Soltani, R. Modarres,
Volume 25, Issue 2 (Summer 2021)
Abstract
Several indices are used for drought identification and quantification. In this paper, the new Standardized Palmer Drought index (SPDI) was introduced and then the drought condition of Chaharmahal-Va-Bakhtiari Province was studied using this index. For this study, 11 synoptic, climatology, and evaporation meteorology stations were selected. Essential information in this investigation includes monthly temperature, monthly precipitation, and soil moisture measurement. To estimate SPDI, moisture departure, was first calculated on a monthly time scale. Then, converted to cumulative moisture departure values in different time scales including 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months. The best statistical distribution (GEV) was then fitted to cumulative departure. These values were then standardized to have the SPDI. The results showed that, as soil moisture affects SPDI estimation, it will be more valid for analyzing and monitoring drought conditions, especially for agricultural drought. Also, the results showed that 2000, 2001, and 2008 years were the driest time in this Province from 1988 to 2012. Moreover, drought frequency was found out in the western half of the Province more than in the other parts.

Regional Frequency Analysis of Drought Severity of SEI-SRI and SEI-SSI Indices in Common Duration Using Multivariate L-Moments and Copula Functions (Case Study: Karkheh River Basin)
S. Parvizi, S. Eslamian, M. Gheysari, A.r. Gohari, S. Soltani Kopai, P. Mohit Esfahani,
Volume 26, Issue 3 (Fall 2022)
Abstract
Investigation of homogeneity regions using univariate characteristics is an important step in the regional frequency analysis method. However, some hydrological phenomena have multivariate characteristics that cannot be studied by univariate methods. Droughts are one of these phenomena their definition as univariate will not be effective for risk assessment, decision-making, and management. Therefore, in this study, the regional frequency analysis of drought was studied in multivariate methods using SEI (Standardized Evapotranspiration Index), SSI (Standardized Soil Moisture Index), and SRI (Standardized Runoff Index) indices in the Karkheh River basin from 1996 to 2019. The indices calculated probabilistic distribution between the variables of evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil moisture using multivariate L-moments method and Copula functions and considered meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts simultaneously. The results of multivariate regional frequency analysis considering the Copula Gumbel as the regional Copula showed that the basin is homogeneous in terms of severity of SEI-SSI combined drought indices and is heterogeneous in terms of severity of SEI-SSI combined drought indices. However, after clustering the basin into four homogeneous areas in terms of characteristics of SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index), the basin is homogeneous in all areas in terms of univariate SEI, SSI, and SRI indices and is heterogeneous in the third and fourth clusters of SRI and SSI drought indices. Pearson Type (III), Pareto, normal, and general logistics distribution functions were found suitable to investigate the characteristics of SEI, SSI, and SRI drought indices in this case. Finally, large estimates of the types of combined droughts and their probability of occurrence showed that the northern and southern parts of the Karkheh River basin will experience short and consecutive droughts in the next years. Droughts in areas without meteorological data can be predicted in terms of joint probability using the multivariate regional frequency analysis method proposed in this study.

Investigating River Flow Normalization Methods and Introducing a New Method
R. Khalaf, A.m. Akhoond-Ali, Saeid Soltani, K. Rezazadeh,
Volume 27, Issue 1 (Spring 2023)
Abstract 
Due to developing abstractions and their impacts on surface runoff, the recorded flow has been changed by human activities in most water gauging stations. Therefore, there is not found natural regime in the catchments. Accordingly, the objective of naturalization is to remove the effect of human activity factors and determine the actual amount of the river flow before the abstraction and the upstream development. Researchers have presented different methods that are mainly based on volume budget. In this way, this research presented the conventional methods as well as investigated their weak points. These new and innovative methods have been applied based on the available data. The methods have been planned based on the net consumption in which, the different types of water demands related to the upstream of each hydrometric station, are estimated for each month of a long-term series. Then, the amount of natural flow is determined by adding them to the observed flow. The accuracy and validation of the results are investigated by comparing the observed and calculated flow. As a case study, this method was utilized and implemented for Tireh and Marbareh sub-basins in Dez as well as Solgan and Beheshtabad sub-basins in the Karun basin. The results showed the role of the human activity factors decreasing the long-term outflow in the Tireh basin a 23.2%, in the Marbareh basin a 28.7%, in the Vanak watershed a 26%, and in the Beheshtabad basin a 9.5%. The results validation indicated the appropriate compatibility of the observational and estimated data for the control points (the stations). In this research, natural flow is obtained by presenting a practical method based on available information in the country. The proposed method has been in the preliminary stages. To verify and comprehend it, it should be used in future research on the interaction of surface and underground water and the use of new technologies such as remote sensing.

Hydrological Drought Monitoring Based on the Correct Calculation of Standardized Flow Index in the Karkheh Basin
S. Gholizadeh Tehrani, S. Soltani Koupai, R. Modarres, V. Chitsaz,
Volume 27, Issue 3 (Fall 2023)
Abstract
Drought is one of the most destructive and important climate phenomena, whose effect is usually more important on a regional scale. The importance of this phenomenon is more evident in the Karkheh basin due to its size and important role in providing the country's water resources. We aim to monitor hydrologic drought using the accurate calculation of standardizes streamflow index (SSI) in one month time scale based on fitting frequency distribution to monthly data and goodness of fit test for each station in Karkheh basin for 30 years (1986-2016). The findings of this research showed that the generalized Pareto distribution was selected as the most appropriate distribution in most months, unlike the previous research that fitted and used only the Gama distribution on the data. The time series of the standard flow index indicated the occurrence of super-drought in 2008 to 2015 years. Also, the significant impact of the construction of hydraulic structures upstream of the basin on the average flow rate was observed in some stations. The results of direct and annual monitoring of the drought situation showed that the Karkheh basin has experienced hydrological drought in recent years, and the drought trend is increasing.

Evaluation of the Effect of Land Use Change on Runoff Using the Markov Chain in Shiraz Nahre Azam Basin
A. Mahdavi, S. Soltani Koopaei, R. Modares, M. Samiei,
Volume 27, Issue 4 (Winter 2023)
Abstract
Land use changes are one of the main factors in the amount of surface runoff changes in watersheds. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate it to reduce the damages (human and financial) caused by floods and to modify watershed management. The watershed of Nahre Azam is located in the north of Shiraz city and a lot of loss of life and money to the residents of Shiraz due to floods has occurred in previous years. The present research was conducted to investigate the relationship between land use change and runoff in the Nahre Azam watershed in Shiraz using the SWAT model in the period of 2004-2020. The model was calibrated using data from 2004 to 2014 and validated for 2015 to 2020. These images were classified into 6 main land uses using the supervised classification method after performing necessary pre-processing, and a land use map was prepared for 2040 using the Markov chain method. Then, the effect of the land use change in 2003 and 2040 on the amount of simulated runoff was evaluated with the recalibrated model. The calibration results of Nahre Azam watershed for the values of statistical parameters in the calibration step for the coefficient of determination, P-Facor and R-Facor are 0.77, 0.72, and 2.43, respectively, and for the validation step we obtained 0.69, 0.65, and 2.3 respectively. The analysis of the land use map showed that the main land use change in the region related to the conversion of pastures to agricultural land and urban land, which caused a decrease in pastures. Also, the results of the model simulation using the land use maps of 2003 and 2040 indicated that the amount of runoff decreased. The results revealed that if all the uncertainties are minimized, the calibrated SWAT model can produce acceptable hydrological simulation results for the user, which is useful for water resource and environmental managers and politicians as well as city managers of Shiraz.

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