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Showing 20 results for Maleki

M. Noshadi, S. Amin, N. Maleki,
Volume 7, Issue 1 (spring 2003)
Abstract

Increasing application of herbicides such as atrazine raises concerns about soil and groundwater pollution. This study investigated spatial and temporal variation of atrazine concentration and its transportation in the Daneshkadeh soil series (Fine, mixed, mesic, Calcixerollic Xerochrepts) at the experimental field of Agricultural College, Shiraz University. The risk of soil and water contamination due to applying atrazine was also assessed. The PRZM-2 model was evaluated for the simulation of the atrazine concentration. The experiment had 3 plots, 209 m2 each (19 by 11 m). Atrazine was applied on corn at a rate of 3.5 kg a.i./ha per plot. During the growing season, soil samples were collected from each plot 7 times through 1 m soil depth with 0.10-m increments. The observed data showed temporal reduction of atrazine concentrations in the soil profile. The maximum depth of atrazine traced was about 50 cm below the soil surface. Statistical parameters ME, RMSE, EF, and CRM were obtained to compare PRZM-2 predicted and observed soil residue concentrations. For all data, the mentioned parameters were calculated and found to be 2.78 mg/kg-soil, 12.73 mg/kg-soil, 0.49, and 0.25, respectively. The simulation results were in close agreement with the observed data. Therefore, PRZM-2 could be used for simulation of atrazine transport and groundwater pollution.
A. Maleki, S. S. Mohtasebi, A. Akram, V. Esfahanian,
Volume 12, Issue 44 (summer 2008)
Abstract

Occupational safety and health of agricultural workers have not yet received their due attention in developing countries. This is particularly true in the case of tractor drivers who operate tractors in unfavorable conditions and in a high level of seat and tractor vibrations. Therefore, an investigation of vibration sources and finding the methods for decreasing them are of considerable importance. In this research, vibrations that the tractor operators of different weights are exposed to while operating any of the three commonly used tractors in Iran during plowing with moldboard plows, disk harrows or routine road travel at two forward speeds were examined. Acceleration data of tractor body and its driver, while riding the tractor, were measured and recorded. Later, Fast Fourier Analysis, and root mean square of weighted accelerations for the cases of driver health and comfort were analyzed and evaluated. Results revealed that the level of forward speed did not have any significant effect on vibrations introduced to drivers body, however, the average of acceleration vectors on different tractors and their drivers’ bodies revealed a significant influence (P<0.01). Moreover, with increasing a driver’s mass, the average of acceleration vectors on his body decreased. For example, a driver of 55 kg mass, bore a maximum acceleration vector of 9.8 m/sec2, while a driver with 100 kg mass, had a minimum acceleration vector of 3.3 m/sec2. In a comparison of permissible riding hours/day, JD3140 and U651 tractors recorded maximum and minimum, respectively. Also acceleration vectors for different tractor operators compared with international standards showed that the comfort level for these tractors was extremely low.
A Soffianian, S Maleki Najafabadi, V Rahdari,
Volume 13, Issue 49 (Water and Soil Science 2009)
Abstract

Landscape ecology as a modern interdisciplinary science offers new concepts, theories, and methods for land evaluation and management. One main part of landscape ecology is describing patterns in the landscape and interpreting the ecological effects of these patterns on flora, fauna, flow of energy and materials. Landscape studies require methods to identify and quantify spatial patterns of landscape. Quantification of spatial patterns is essential to understand landscape functions and processes. Landscape indices as diversity and naturalness can provide quantitative information about landscape pattern. Remote sensing and GIS techniques have high ability for landscape researchers to specify, map and analyze landscape patterns. The objectives of the research include mapping and quantifing diversity and naturalness indices for Mooteh wildlife refuge by land use/land cover map derived from remote sensing images. Finally, diversity and naturalness were classified in 4 and 6 classes, respectively. Results showed that the intermediate and high diversity classes (class 1 & 2) have occupied the largest area in the study area. Among naturalness classes, class 1 which represents the high level of naturalness has taken the largest area in Mooteh W.R.
Afkhami, Dastorani, Malekinejad , Mobin,
Volume 14, Issue 51 (spring 2010)
Abstract

Drought is a natural feature of the climate condition, and its recurrence is inevitable. The main purpose of this research is to evaluate the effects of climatic factors on prediction of drought in different areas of Yazd based on artificial neural networks technique. In most of the meteorological stations located in Yazd area, precipitation is the only measured factor while generally in synoptic meteorological stations in addition to precipitation some other variables including maximum and mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, dominant wind direction and the amount of evaporation are also available. In this research it was tried to evaluate the role of the type and number of meteorological factor (as inputs of ANN model) on accuracy of ANN based drought prediction. Research area is a part of Yazd province containing only one synoptic and 13 non-synoptic meteorological stations. Three-year moving average of monthly precipitation was the main input of the models in all stations. The type of ANN used in this study was time lag recurrent network (TLRN), a dynamic architecture which was selected by evaluation of different types of ANN in this research. What was predicted is the three-year moving average of monthly precipitation of the next year, which is the main factor to evaluate drought condition one year before it occurs. For the Yazd synoptic meteorological station, several combinations of input variables was evaluated and tested to find the most relevant type of input variables for prediction of drought. However, for other 13 stations precipitation data was the only variable to use in ANN models for this purpose. Results in all stations were satisfactory, even where only one input (precipitation) was used to the models, although the level prediction accuracy was different from station to station. Result taken from this research, indicates high flexibility of ANN to cope with poor data condition where it is difficult to get acceptable results by most of the methods.
R. Malekian, J. Abedi-Koupai, S. S. Eslamian, M. Afyuni,
Volume 17, Issue 63 (Spring 2013)
Abstract

Nitrogen (N) loss from irrigated cropland, particularly sandy soils, significantly contributes to nitrate contamination in surface and groundwater and increases N applications to crops. This is because negatively charged nitrate normally does not have much affinity to soil particles. To retard the movement of nitrate, materials should have high affinity for anions, which most naturally occurring minerals do not have. The cation-exchange properties of natural zeolites can be exploited to modify their surface chemistries so that other classes of compounds, particularly anions and non-polar organics are retained. In this study, the ability to remove nitrate from aqueous solutions with different Cl- concentrations using Iranian zeolite (Semnan) modified by hexadecyltrimethylammonium bromide in millimeter and nanometer particle sizes was determined and the equilibrium isotherms were characterized. The nitrate release as affected by time and ionic strength was also evaluated. It was demonstrated that SMZ is capable of adsorbing more than 60 mmol kg-1 and 80 mmol kg-1 nitrate in millimeter and nanometer sizes, respectively, and adsorbed nitrate can be easily released under different ionic strengths. The millimeter and nanometer-sized SMZ showed 26.7% to 82.3% and 37.8% to 85.5% nitrate removal efficiency, respectively. The average of nitrate released by millimeter-sized SMZ was 6.92 mmol kg-1 in deionized water while it was 14.68, 22.71, and 34.91 mmol kg-1 in releasing solutions with ionic strengths of 0.03, 0.1, and 0.3 M, respectively
R. Malekian, J. Abedi-Koupai, S. S. Eslamian,
Volume 18, Issue 68 (summer 2014)
Abstract

In this study, the effect of clinoptilolite zeolite, as a soil amendment, on the parameters related to water and nitrogen movement in soil was investigated. Parameter and uncertainty estimation in the unamended (control) and amended soil (Z), was performed using the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) which is linked to LEACHN (in the LEACHN-CUP software). The goodness of prediction uncertainty was judged on the basis of P-factor and R-factor. P factor, R-factor, and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) was obtained 0.71, 0.76, and 0.92, respectively, in the prediction of the accumulated drainage from control. The results in prediction of the accumulated drainage from Z treatment using hydraulic parameters obtained in control were satisfactory (P-factor = 0.87, R-factor = 0.78, and NS = 0.87). P-factor, R factor, and NS were 0.87, 1.36, and 0.91, respectively, in the prediction of NO3-N leaching at control. According to the P-factor and R-factor values (P-factor = 1, R-factor = 2.46), application of the control parameter ranges in the prediction of NO3-N leaching at Z treatment produced a large uncertainty. By adjusting the parameters in control for zeolite amended soil, the estimated values for denitrification rate, distribution coefficient, and soil/solution NO3-N nitrification rate were greater in zeolite-amended soil compared to control.
A. Malekian, H. Alipour, M. Kheirkhah Zarkesh, S. Gharachelo,
Volume 18, Issue 69 (fall 2014)
Abstract

Determine appropriate locations with accuracy and speed required is for Floodwater spreading very important. The main objective of this research, preparation, use and evaluation decision support systems is based on GIS and RS techniques to identify and prioritization appropriate areas Floodwater spreading in the study area. In this study area suitable for flood water spreading were selected based on major criteria four, sub criteria eight and index twentyfour. Finally five scenario will be provide and assessment (a scenario based on the relative values for the criteria four, and different scenarios four based on the obvious one of the main criteria). Comparison desirability average among the scenarios five indicate that it is Sub watershed (1) In the scenario third (infilteration preferred, water application preference and equality of all the main criteria) had a higher average desirability therefore between Sub watershed 2 in this scenario is preferred more than the other Sub. Of between the two sub watershed ivar region considering that the desirability average, sub watershed (1) and implemented of between scenarios, scenario (1) (infilteration major criteria preferred) were selected as first priority. Second priority for Floodwater spreading site selection is belong to sub watershed 2, and with scenario (1).


M. S. Maleki, H. Byatt, T. Ebadi,
Volume 19, Issue 71 (spring 2015)
Abstract

Some recent research has indicated that certain alkaline contaminations may adversely affect mechanical properties of clayey soils. To examine the potential impact of alkaline divalent barium on the swelling characteristics of KAHRIZAK clay, the major solid-waste landfill at south of Tehran, a systematic set of experiments was conducted. Observations indicated that the swelling in the studied soil that belonged to the CH-MH group with a PI of 28.44, was reduced by about 17, 37, 48 and 54 percent, and swelling pressure by about 41, 55, 65 and 67 percent, respectively, after addition of barium chloride solutions to concentrations of 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 1.25 molal. It was also found that addition of barium chloride solutions to concentrations of higher than 1 molal had a little effect on reduction of swelling and swelling pressure.


Z. Feyzi, A.r. Keshtkar, A. Malekian, H. Ghasemieh,
Volume 20, Issue 76 (Summer 2016)
Abstract

Shortage of rainfall and also relatively high intensity precipitations in short-term are characteristics of arid regions of the world, such as central of Iran. Studies have indicated that massive flooding causes great loss of life and properties every year. Also, Water scarcity in arid and semiarid regions of the world will cause fragile living conditions in these areas. Therefore, it is needed to reduce runoff rates using actions such as dam construction or artificial recharge techniques. In this study, seven factors were applied such as the slope, surface permeability, transmissibility in alluvium, alluvial quality, land use, runoff volume and thickness of the unsaturated layer to determine suitable areas and site selection for flood spreading and artificial recharge in south of Kashan plain. After preparing the digital layers, criteria weights were determined using Fuzzy AHP. The weighted maps were acquired and merged together. Results indicated that land use criterion with the greatest weight (0.22) was determined as the first priority in the site selection for flood speading. The parameters of runoff volume, permeability, slope, depth of the unsaturated layer, alluvial quality, and transfer coefficient were accounted as the second to seventh priorities. 


M. Hayatzadeh, M. R. Ekhtesasi, H. Malekinezhad, A. Fathzadeh, H. R. Azimzadeh,
Volume 21, Issue 1 (Spring 2017)
Abstract

Soil erosion is undoubtedly one of the most important problems in natural areas of Iran and has destructive effects on different ecosystems. Considering that calculation of the sediment rate in sediment stations and direct measurements of erosion process is costly and difficult, it is critical to find ways to accurately estimate the amount of sediment yield in catchments especially in arid and hyper arid areas because of their high ecological sensitivity. One of the most commonly used methods in these areas is the sediment rating regression method. Therefore, in this study sediment observed data for 48 events (the corresponding discharge and sediment) in a 23-year period from Fkhrabad basin (Mehriz) were compared to the estimated data obtained from Multi-line rating method, extent middle class, middle class rating curve with correction factor QMLE, SMEARING correction coefficient FAO and Artificial Neural networks (ANNs). Finally, the accuracy of these methods were assessed using different evaluation criteria such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and the standard Nash (ME). Results showed that ANN outperformed the other methods with the RMSE, R2 and ME of 203.3, 0.86 and 0.66, respectively. The results suggest that these methods should be used cautiously in estimating the suspended sediment load in arid and hyper arid regions due to the nature of the observed data and temporal and seasonal flow systems in these regions. It was also indicated that the artificial neural network models have higher flexibility than other methods which makes them to be useful tools for modeling in poor data conditions.
 


S. Pishyar, H. Khosravi, A. Tavili, A. Malekian,
Volume 21, Issue 4 (Winter 2018)
Abstract

In this study, to study the status of water resources degradation in Kashan region, Isfahan Province, eight indices including: drop in groundwater, water salinity, irrigation efficiency, Well-to-Qanat development ratio, the pumping time, shortage of water supplies for animals and humans and the water negative balance were selected according to previous studies conducted on desertification in Iran and the world. Existing evaluation models were determined. Desertification map of the study area was provided according to MEDALUS model and selected indices. The selected indices were weighted using a multi-criteria decision method and each index having weight more than 0.5 were selected as the most effective indices of desertification. Again, the desertification status map of the study area was prepared by the most effective indices. Finally, the two desertification maps were compared. The results showed that the drop in groundwater, water salinity, the pumping time and water negative balance have the most effect on water resources degradation among selected indices. The results of comparing two groundwater degradation maps showed that based on map provided with eight indices, 87.78 and 8.30 percent of the total area are classified in critical conditions c and b, respectively. While the map provided by the most effective indicators shows that 99.15% of the total area is classified in the critical condition "c" and just 0.849% is classified in the critical condition "b".  It can be concluded that to assess desertification status, it is better to first determine the indicators by weighting and prioritizing methods. This will identify the indicators that have not had a significant effect on the desertification phenomenon in the area and prevent their impact on desertification classes and reduction of scores.

J. Chezgi, H. Maleki Nezhad, M. R. Ekhtesasi, M. Nakhaei,
Volume 22, Issue 1 (Spring 2018)
Abstract

Underground dams are structures built in underground and are capable of saving and making the underground water available. In this research, by using the SWOT analysis model, suitable locations were investigated for the development of an underground dam in the Keriyan area of Hormozgan province.  At first, the necessary data and information were provided by visiting the region and presenting a questionnaire to the residents of the area and experts to investigate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the region for the underground dams. In the final step, by using the SWOT model and QSPM matrix, a comprehensive and appropriate strategy for underground dams was determined. The results showed that among the internal factors, not decreasing the volume of the reservoir due to deposits and reducing the evaporation from the reservoir with a final value of 0.85 and 0.66, and among the external factors, the willingness and cooperation of the relevant organizations and the disruption of downstream water rights with a final value of 0.68 and 0.66 had the greatest impact on selecting the strategy. Based on the results related to the internal and external factors, the strategy was placed in the maximum-maximum quadrant; in line with the strategy, by using the strengths and opportunities, the weaknesses should be overcome and the threats should be tackled. Some strategies were presented. In order to prioritize these strategies, the quantitative matrix QSPM was used. Finally, the hydrological, economic, social and environmental evaluating strategies of underground dams, before and after the construction, with a final score of 19.3 were prioritized.


D. Ziaei, R. Zare Bidaki, A. A. Besalatpour, A. Malekian,
Volume 23, Issue 4 (Special Issue of Flood and Soil Erosion, Winter 2019)
Abstract

To preserve soil as a productive resource, a balance between natural capability and utilization must be established to achieve through land suitability evaluation. The aim of this study was to compare the run-off and deposition of different land uses of Beheshtabad watershed in the current situation and in compliance with standardized land use fitted situation. For this purpose, land use map in its current state was provided using Landsat 7 images and land use suitability map was obtained by FAO (1979) instructions. SWAT model was then applied to simulate runoff and sediment yield by using these land use maps. To do this, the curve number method was used for calculating the runoff, the Muskingam was applied for channel routing, and Hrgrave-samani was employed for potansial evapotranspiration. The results confirmed that considering suitability in using lands in Beheshtabad watershed caused the reduction of the average runoff from 99.4 mm/yr to 82.8 mm/yr (17%) and sediment rate of 10.7 to 7.8 t/ha. yr (27%). Also, the reduction percentage in some land uses, such as dry, irrigated cropland and downstream ranges, was much more.

E. Soheili, H. Malekinezhad, M. R. Ekhtesasi,
Volume 23, Issue 4 (Special Issue of Flood and Soil Erosion, Winter 2019)
Abstract

The Kor River in Fars province supplies an important part of water requirement in the Doroodzan dam basin and its surrounding area. In this study, the meteorological and hydrological droughts of this area were investigated in the last four decades. For this purpose, the temporal and spatial trend variability of the stream flow was investigated in monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales in the 6 selected stations. The trends of Standardized Precipitation Index SPI, as the drought index, in the 5 selected stations were also studied by the modified Mann-Kendall method. The results indicated that the trend in the stream flow was decreasing in all time scales. Significant downward trends were observed at 95% confidence level on monthly, annual and monthly time scales, especially in the warm months from May to September. These significant downward trends were located spatially in the stations located near the agriculture area, in the middle part of the basin. The significant upward trend existed only at the Doroodzan dam station, at the outlet in the area and in the warm months of the year. In the case of the SPI index, trends were  decreasing in all time scales and were  significant only at 2 stations in the long-term periods, 9, 12, and 18 months, at 95% confidence level. The results, therefore, indicated the occurrence of severe droughts (SPI<-2) during 1982-83 and 2007-8 periods.

V. Rahdari, A. Soffianian, S. Pormanafi, H. Ghayomi Mohammadi, S. Maleki, V. Pormardan,
Volume 23, Issue 4 (winter 2020)
Abstract

In this study, to evaluate the rain- fed land capability in the west of Gavkhooni basin and Plasjn sub- basin, a multi- criteria evaluation method was used. First, by reviewing the literature and expert knowledge, proper data were determined. Criteria and constraint were standardized by Fuzzy and Boolean methods repeatedly and the criteria weights were determined using the analytic hierarchy process. Calculated weights showed that soil and climate criteria with 0.27 and 0.26 had the highest weights among other criteria. Criteria and constraints were combined by considering criteria weights and using the weighted linear combination method; then the rain- fed land capability model was prepared. By re- classing the prepared model, the rain- fed land capability map was produced in 6 capability classes. The results showed that 178430 hectares of the study area was related to very high and high rain- fed capability classes. To determine the rain-fed agriculture sustainability, rain- fed agriculture locations were determined in each land rain- fed capability map. The results showed that 19686 hectares of rain- fed areas were located in high and very high capability and 5999 hectares were the in lower classes.

M. Maleki-Kakelar, M. Yavari,
Volume 24, Issue 1 (Spring 2020)
Abstract

Biocementation through microbial induced carbonate precipitation (MICP) is a recently developed new branch in geotechnical engineering that improves the mechanical properties of bio-treated soils. The potential application of MICP to handle problems such as liquefaction and erosion has been established; this technique offers an environmentally friendly, cost-effective and convenient alternative to traditional soil improvement approaches. Nevertheless, in spite of the widespread demonstration of the process at laboratory scale, few field and practical applications have been implemented to assess the efficiency of the biochemical process. Therefore, this paper presents a review of the utilization of MICP for soil improvement and discusses the treatment process including the key constituents involved and the main affecting factors, especially in field scale applications. The major contribution of this research is to identify the main parameters restricting the application of this method on site. Finally, technical and commercial progress in the industrial adoption of the technology and the main challenges that are ahead for the future research prior to real practical application are briefly discussed.
 
 

A. Malekian1, A.a. Jafarazdeh, Sh. Oustan, M. Servati,
Volume 26, Issue 2 (ُSummer 2022)
Abstract

To study the soil-landscape change in the Chaldoran region, 9 representative soil profiles were studied in 5 dominant geomorphic units of the study area including piedmont plain, mantled pediment, alluvial fan, plain, and flood plain. The results showed that the accumulation of pedogenic carbonate in some soils was concretion and light in color. In control soils in the piedmont plain (profile 5 and 7), mantled pediment (profile 6), and flood plain (profile 8) clay transferred from the surface horizons and accumulated in the lower horizon, due to relatively good rainfall in the region and distinct dry and wet seasons has led to the formation of argillic horizons along with the formation of crust on the surfaces of aggregates and building units and has formed the Alfisoils order. Mineralogical results showed the presence of chlorite, illite, kaolinite, and smectite minerals. According to the evidence, illite, chlorite, and kaolinite minerals were inherited and smectite minerals were formed due to weathering and evolution of illite, chlorite, or palygorskite minerals. Also, the results of the CIA index in the region indicated that the soils of the region are in the stage of weak to moderate weathering. In general, the results indicated the critical role of drainage, land use, and parent materials in the soils of the study area.

A. Yousefi, M. Maleki-Zadeh, A.r. Nikooie, M.s. Ebrahimi,
Volume 26, Issue 4 (Winiter 2023)
Abstract

This study determines the amount of irrigation water saved as a result of the subsidy policy to adapt from flood to drip irrigation. We developed a positive mathematical programming model (PMP) to evaluate the effect of economic incentives on farmers’ decisions to choose the type of irrigation technology, cropping pattern, and "water use" and "water consumption" in rural Garkan Shomali district, which is part of the Najafabad aquifer. We collected data through farm surveys, desk research, and expert interviews. The results showed that a reduction in the financial costs of converting flood irrigation into drip irrigation can lead to farmers investing in this technology. In the current water allocation scenario, the subsidy policy increases the water consumption of drip-irrigated crops by 28%, of which 19% is non-consumed water before subsidy payment and the rest is related to the reduction of furrow-irrigated lands. Also, under non-volumetric water delivery conditions, the operating costs reduce and the net income of the farms increases because of the increase in efficiency and the development of the area under cultivation, which increases water consumption while the water use is constant. In the volumetric water delivery scenario, with the increase in subsidies, the net income of the farms will increase without developing the area under cultivation and only because of the increased yield. Therefore, subsidy policy increases irrigation efficiency at both the farm and regional levels and is an effective tool for dealing with drought conditions.

V. Rahdari, A.r. Soffianian, S. Pormanafi, S. Maleki,
Volume 27, Issue 3 (Fall 2023)
Abstract

Industrial development is necessary to create employment and achieve welfare. Nevertheless, due to the important environmental effects of these uses, it is necessary to consider the environmental issues in industrial area land allocation. The current research used the multi-criteria evaluation method and the combination with fuzzy concepts to investigate the land capability for industrial development in the Plasjan sub-basin in the Zayandeh-rood river basin. Evaluation criteria were determined by literature reviewing and using experts' knowledge, and standard applying fuzzy method via proportional functions and weighted using the hierarchical method. The combined classification of satellite images prepared the land use and land cover map. Then, the standardized criteria were combined in the form of a weighted linear combination and the industrial development capability model was prepared for this area and classified into five land capability classes. The results showed that environmental considerations have the most weight with 0.23, and geological and soil texture criteria have the least weight with 0.06. According to the results, only 213 hectares of the region were allocated for industrial and mining use at the time of the study. In comparison, 2325 hectares of the region have very high industrial potential which shows the capability for increasing industrial areas. Also, the highest class of land capability was related to areas without the capability for industrial development with an area of 246375 ha, equivalent to 60% of the entire region, which shows the importance of conservation of the important functions of this region in water supply and ecological resources.

M. Salari, V. Rahdari, S. Maleki, R. Karami,
Volume 27, Issue 4 (Winter 2023)
Abstract

the countries of Iran and Afghanistan. A long period of drought has happened in this area by human interventions after 1999. The objective of current study is to predict the Hamoun wetland situation in scenarios with and without human intervention using the Markov model-automated cellular for 2019 and the next forty years. Land cover maps of the study area using satellite images for 1987 as a normal year, 1991 as a wet year, and 2019 as a year with human effects were prepared. Then, prediction model for 2019 were prepared using 1987 and 1991 cover layers in four scenarios, prediction models were prepared for the next forty years in normal, drought, and wet conditions. If the natural process of watering of Hamoun wetland continues, lower than 362735 hectares of wetland should become watering in 2019, while, according this year land cover map, less than 50000 hectares of wetland have water. Also, by continuation of the current trend and the effect of human activities in the 40-year models, 11230 hectares of the area will be watering, and if the natural process of the wetland continued using the model of 2019 this amount was equal to 373311 hectares. The results of the research show the completely different situation of the Hamoun wetland in the case of no human intervention in the watering of this wetland in 2019 and the model of the next forty years.


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