S. Nikkhoo Amiri, M. Khoshravesh, R. Norooz Valashedi,
Volume 23, Issue 4 (12-2019)
Abstract
Today, the rising surface temperature of the planet and its effects on the water cycle have attracted the attention of many researchers. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of climate change on the Tajan (the upstream of Shahid Rajaei dam) catchment area. In order to study the output of CanESM2 model, the SDSM method was used to estimate the magnitude of the data. Flow discharge changes in Shahid Rajaei Dam were simulated using the weather data of Kiasar synoptic station and the temperature and precipitation changes were simulated using the climate scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for the 2016-2066 period. Also, the effect of different scenarios on the outflow of the Soleiman Tangeh hydrometric station was evaluated by SWAT hydrologic model. The results showed that the annual precipitation would be decreased by 58% and the air temperature would be increased by 14% under RCP2.6 scenario. Also, in the RCP8.5 scenario, precipitation would be decreased by 59.5% and the temperature would be increased by 21%. Peak discharge for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios would be increased by 4% and 5.7%, respectively, and the average annual discharge might be decreased by 16% and 16.5% in the future period (2016-2066). Therefore, it can be planned by the investigation of conditions for cropping patterns in the downstream to consider the environmental impacts for future periods.
M. Naderi, V. Sheikh, A. Bahrehmand, C.b. Komaki, A. Ghangermeh,
Volume 27, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Abstract
Greenhouse gases and the occurrence of climate change have occurred with the development of technology and the industrialization of human societies. long-term forecasting of climate parameters has always been interesting due to the importance of climate change for the earth and its inhabitants. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are one of the most widely used methods for evaluating future climate conditions. In the present study, the results of three general circulation models including the American model of GFDL-CM3, the Canadian model of CanESM2, and the Russian model of inmcm4ncml for the study area were evaluated and the CanESM2 model was selected as the superior model. The RCP scenarios 2.6, 4.5, and RCP 8.5 were used with the CanESM2 model to assess climate change conditions across the Hablehroud River basin for the period 2020-2051. According to the results, the total monthly precipitation shows an increasing trend in the coming decades 2020-2051 period compared to the period 1986-2017. The results of the study of temperature changes in the period 2020-2051 in the Hablehroud River basin also indicate an increase in the monthly average of maximum and minimum temperatures in the coming decades. The consequences of these conditions are of great hydrological importance in the study area, this condition necessitates the adoption of climate change adaptation policies in this watershed.
