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Showing 2 results for Emission Scenario
The Effect of Climate change on the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin’s temperature using a Bayesian machine learning Soft Computing Technique
Sh. Kouhestani, S, Eslamian, A. Besalatpour,
Volume 21, Issue 1 (6-2017)
Abstract

This study aims to investigate the changes of minimum and maximum temperature variables under the impact of climate change for time period of 2015-2100 in the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. The outputs of 14 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under three green-house emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) are employed from the Fifth Assessment Report (CMIP5) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A novel statistical downscaling method using a Bayesian Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) is used to project the impact of climate change on the temperature variables at regional scale. The results of the weighting average of the GCMs show that the various models have different accuracy in the projecting the minimum and maximum temperatures in the study area. The results demonstrate that the MIROC5 and CCSM4 are the most reliable models in projecting the maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The highest increase for both maximum and minimum temperatures was obtained in winter.
    On the annual basis, the maximum temperature will increase by 0.18-0.76 °C and 0.25-1.67 °C, respectively, in the near and long-term future periods under different emission scenarios. The annual minimum temperature will increase by 0.28 to 0.82 °C and 0.24-1.56 °C, respectively, in the near and long-term future periods. In a general view, changes in maximum temperature will be slightly higher than minimum temperature changes in the future.
 


Effects of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation in Yazd Province Based on Combined Output of CMIP6 Models
M. Zareian,
Volume 26, Issue 2 (9-2022)
Abstract
This study was conducted to investigate the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation changes in important synoptic weather stations in Yazd province (including Yazd, Bafgh, Marvast, and Robat-e-Poshtebadam). Accordingly, a combination of the outputs of the latest AOGCM models presented in the IPCC sixth assessment report (CMIP6) were used to increase the accuracy of temperature and precipitation forecasts. A weighting method was used based on the Kling-Gupta combined index (KGE) to combine these models. After weighting the models, the monthly temperature and precipitation changes were calculated based on SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 emission scenarios. Then, daily temperature and precipitation time series were extracted for different weather stations using the LARS-WG downscaling model. The results showed that in all the weather stations, CanESM5 and BCC-CSM2-MR models have the best ability to simulate the temperature and precipitation of the historical period, respectively. Results also showed that in all emission scenarios, the annual temperature will increase and the annual precipitation will decrease. The annual temperature of this region will increase between 0.2 to 0.6 °C, and the annual precipitation will decrease between 2.9 and 13.7% in different weather stations. Also, the maximum temperature increase and precipitation decrease in this region, will occur in spring and autumn, respectively.

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