JWSS - Journal of Water and Soil Science

Flood discharge estimation with different return periods is one of important factors for water structures design and installation. On the other hand, a lot of rivers existing in Iran watersheds have no complete and accurate hydrometric data. In these cases, one of the suitable solutions to estimate peak discharges with different return periods is the regional flood analysis. In this research, 55 hydrometric stations were used. For this purpose, at first, peak discharges in different return periods were estimated using the EasyFit software. Then, the effective variables on the peak discharges were collected and the input variables of the models were selected by using gamma test with the help of the WinGamma software. Finally, data modeling was performed using the support vector machine, artificial neural networks and nonlinear multivariate regression techniques. Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the results using various indices including Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSC) showed that SVM modeling method had the most accuracy in comparison to the other two modeling methods to predict the peak discharges in the Namak Lake Watershed.

The simulation of the rainfall-runoff process in the watershed has particular importance for a better understanding of hydrologic issues, water resources management, river engineering, flood control structures, and flood storage. In this study, to simulate the rainfall-runoff process, rainfall and discharge data were used in the period 1997-2017. After data qualitative control, rainfall, and discharge delays were determined using the coefficients of autocorrelation, partial autocorrelation, and cross-correlation in R Studio software. Then, the effective parameters and the optimum combination were determined by the Gamma test method and used to implement the model under three different scenarios in MATLAB software. Gamma test results showed that today's precipitation parameters, precipitation of the previous day, discharge of the previous day, and discharge of two days ago have the greatest effect on the outflow of the basin. Also, the P_t Q_t-1 and P_t P_t-1 Q_t-1 Q_t-2 Q_t-3 combinations were selected as the most suitable input combinations for modeling. The results of the modeling showed that in the support vector machine model, the Radial Base kernel Function (RBF) has a better performance than multiple and linear kernels. Also, the performance of the Artificial Neural Network model (ANN) is better than the Support Vector Machine model (SVM) with Radial Base kernel Function (RBF).