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Showing 4 results for Risk Assessment
Drought Risk Assessment in Isfahan Province
S. Ghaseminejad, S. Soltani, A. Soffianian,
Volume 18, Issue 68 (9-2014)
Abstract
Drought is a one of the most important natural disasters that have high socio-economic and environmental impacts. However, drought is more than a physical phenomenon or natural event. Its impact results from the relation between a natural event and demands on the water supply, and it is often exacerbated by human activities. The traditional approach to drought management has been reactive, relying on crisis management. Due to the drawbacks of crisis management, employing proper risk management techniques has been suggested. In order to move from crisis management to risk management, in this study, risk of drought in Isfahan province was evaluated. Drought hazard index and vulnerability index are components of the drought risk management. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used as the index of drought hazard. For the calculation of SPI, the monthly rainfall data in 47 meteorological stations during the period of 1975-2007 were collected. The time series of rainfall data were prepared and for calculation of the standardized precipitation index in a 12 month timescale they were imported to SPI program. Percentage of drought occurrence in each severity was calculated and then the drought index map was obtained. Vulnerability index was calculated through socio-economic indicators (population density and percentage of people involved in agriculture), and physical indicators (available water capacity of soil and land use). Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) technique was applied for combination of vulnerability indicators. To assign weights to the criteria, an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used. After providing the maps, fuzzy membership functions for every criterion were used for their standardization. For the weighting of the criteria, a questionnaire was prepared and criteria comparison was done using the participatory approach by a group of experts. Finally, the drought risk index was calculated by multiplying the drought hazard index and vulnerability index. The results showed that hazard of very severe drought is mainly concentrated in the central part of province. The North and North East of Isfahan province could experience condition of severe drought. South West of Isfahan province is under moderate drought condition compared to the other parts of the province. Map of drought vulnerability index showed that the most vulnerability is in the West, South and North-East of province. Map of drought risk index showed that the Northern Province demonstrated high risk. To reduce the drought risk in Isfahan province, improving monitoring, early warning, increasing environmental awareness, and promoting water resource management practices should be considered.
Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Soils and Major Food Crops in the Province of Hamadan
H. Kheirabadi, M. Afyuni, S. Ayoubi, A. Soffianian,
Volume 19, Issue 74 (1-2016)
Abstract

Heavy metals are known to have deleterious effects on human health. The main route of human exposure to heavy metals is the daily intake of food. This study was designed to investigate the heavy metal concentrations (Cu, Zn, Mn, Fe, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil and major food crops (wheat, potato and corn) and estimate the health risks of metals to humans via soil and the crops consumed in Hamedan Province, using the total non-cancer hazard quotient. Daily metal intakes were estimated for three receptor groups and then compared with health guideline values. The non-cancer risk estimations showed that chromium, manganese, cadmium, zinc, Iron, Nickel and copper have oral Hazard Quotient values less than a value of one. The Hazard Index values were greater than 1 for all age groups, suggesting that adults and children in the study area may experience a potential non-cancer risk due to diet of heavy metal via wheat, corn and potato consumption and soil ingestion. Consumption of plant foods particularly wheat was found to be the major route of human exposure to heavy metal. The soil ingestion route is also important.


Floodplain Hazard Mapping in the Iranshahr River by Using Two-Dimensional Numerical Modelling and GIS
A. Jamal, A. Parvan, D. Valizadeh,
Volume 23, Issue 4 (12-2019)
Abstract
Today, the preparation of flood zoning maps is one of the basic and important issues in the study of development projects in the world; it is considered before any investment by the related organizations. In this paper, flood zoning was performed using the two-dimensional model HEC-RAS and GIS in order to assess the risk of the construction of a railway station near the bank of the Iranshahr River, in a range of 2500 meters. Two-dimensional hydraulic application could create a more accurate flow pattern in comparison to the one-dimensional model used in the previous studies, especially in the flood plain areas. In this paper, due to the important role of the topography of the area in ensuring the accuracy of the calculation, a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used with very high precision (about 2 meters), as obtained from aerial photos. The results of this study indicated the onrush of flood, depth and flow velocity in different return periods. Based on the comparison of water surface profiles in the floodplains with the return period of 100 and 25 years, the maximum difference between the water levels was 0.5 m, which seemed to be reasonable by considering the low slope of the studied area. The results of this paper, therefore, showed that the location of the railway station was in medium risk and the outskirt of floodplain.

Assessment and Spatial Modeling of Land Subsidence Hazard Using the LiCSBAS Model and Random Forest Algorithm (Case Study: Marvdasht Kharame Plain)
M. Khajeh, C. B. Komaki, M. Rezaei, V. Sheikh, L. Ebadi,
Volume 28, Issue 2 (8-2024)
Abstract
In the future, the risk of land subsidence due to water resources shortage crisis and improper water resources management will become more and more dangerous. It is necessary to assess and identify areas susceptible to subsidence risk and take necessary actions to reduce risks related to land subsidence. In this study, first, the risk of land subsidence was identified and evaluated using a radar interferometry method called LiCSBAS. Then, the spatial relationship between the occurrence of land subsidence hazard and effective factors such as ground elevation, slope, slope aspect, lithology, land use, groundwater decline, distance from rivers, distance from faults, topographic moisture index, and arc curvature was investigated using the random forest (RF) model. In the end, the land subsidence hazard sensitivity map was prepared after calibrating the random forest algorithm. The analysis of LiCSBAS interferometric time series data from 2015 to 2022 showed that the center of the Marvdasht-Kharameh plain and adjacent agricultural areas are continuously subsiding and the mean deformation rate map showed a subsidence rate of 11.6 centimeters per year. The results of determining the spatial relationship between subsidence occurrence and effective factors confirmed the positive impact of distance from rivers, urban and agricultural land uses, depth of bedrock (aquifer thickness), groundwater decline, and alluvial and fine-grained formations on this phenomenon. Also, the results of subsidence modeling using the random forest algorithm showed that factors such as bedrock depth, groundwater decline, land use, and geology have the greatest impact on the potential for subsidence occurrence in the study area. Also, based on the results, about 3 to 4 percent of the areas are in the very high and extremely high-risk classes of land subsidence, especially in the center and suburbs of Mervdasht. Therefore, water resources management and control and developing a systematic program to reduce subsidence risk and aquifer recharge conservation in Merudasht-Kharameh Plain is essential.

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