Showing 3 results for Risk Programming
Mansour Zibaei, Gholam Reza Soltani, Ahmad Ali Keykha,
Volume 2, Issue 4 (1-1999)
Abstract
The production and acreage of corn in Iran and in Fars Province, in particular, are expanding at an increasing rate. The impacts of this event was studied by a risk programming model (MOTAD). The results indicated that the optimal cropping patterns with corn had less variance than the optimal patterns without corn in all income levels. The results also showed that with the introduction of corn into cropping pattern, the use of land and water were increased, but the rate of increase in the use of land was more than the rate of increase in the use of water. By determining risk - aversion coefficient for the sample farmers, their sensitivity to corn price changes were studied. The results indicated that the relationship between corn and wheat is complementary but it is competing with barley, sugarbeet, cotton, cucurbits and legumes.
A. Abdeshahi, G. Soltani,
Volume 4, Issue 1 (4-2000)
Abstract
Successful implementation of socio-economic projects depends on the degree of planners’ awareness of farmers’ risk coefficient. Because agriculture is a risky activity, knowledge about the farmers’ attitudes toward risk in each area is essential. This research investigated the farmers’ risk behavior in Homayjan district in Sepidan township. Cross-section and time series data were collected from a random sample of farmers and from Agricultural Department of Fars Province, respectively. In this study, the Safety First Rule (SFR), Generalized Stochastic Production Function (GSPF) and Target Motad models were used.
The results indicated that in this area, farmers are risk averse in crop production, but they have a low risk coefficient in the use of modern inputs. Signs of GSPF revealed that the use of modern resource input reduces risk. Target Motad risk programming model confirmed that farmers are risk averse because with increasing risk, crops like wheat that have relatively stable prices and yield enter the model, while crops like onion that have high instability in price and yield are omitted from the model.
J. Torkamani, M. Sabohi,
Volume 11, Issue 1 (4-2007)
Abstract
The endogenous selection and determination of return reference level is important in specifying risk efficient set. Thus, using multi-objective programming, Target–MOTAD in the framework of Mean-PAD and maximin parametric analysis models was established to obtained reference level of return endogenously. To determine non–inferior set for the farmers understudy, at first, the pay-off matrix was obtained through maximizing objectives under consideration. Then, upper and lower bounds of non-inferior set were determined using non- inferior set estimation (NISE) technique. The results obtained from maximin model indicated that Min and Max of maximin model were 270252 and 217753 thousands Rials, respectively. Furthermore, a subset of non-inferior set was obtained using different return reference levels. Comparing the results of model and the current farmers' plan showed that the current acreage of crops, except for sugar beet was approximately placed in the range determined by the model. In addition, the results also indicated that farmers' plan could be a non- inferior set. Considering the importance and also scarcity of water in the study area, average water return in the farmers' plan was compared to non-inferior set which included all the upper and lower non-inferior set. The results showed that farmers obtained 18150 Rials per hours of used water. However, average water return changed the range of 19100 to 30200 Rials for non-inferior set, indicating that farmers are able to use water more efficiently. The results also showed that changing farmers' cropping pattern is a complicated task and that it is necessary to have a systematic view in ordere to achieve desirable change.
