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Showing 2 results for Sdsm Model
Assessment the Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Runoff in Bazoft Watershed
P. Almasi, S. Soltani, M. Goodarzi, R. Modarres,
Volume 20, Issue 78 (1-2017)
Abstract

With regard to the confirmation of climate change in most regions of the world and its effects on different parts of the water cycle, knowledge of the status of water resources is necessary for proper management of resources and planning for the future. Hence many studies have been done in different areas with the aim of analyzing the impact of climate change on hydrological processes in the upcoming periods. In present research, the effect of climate change on surface runoff in Bazoft watershed has been studied. Bazoft watershed, located in North-West of Chahar Mahal & Bakhtiari province, has significant contribution in the production of water resources of the region due to its special topographical and geographical status. In this study, climatic model – HadCM3- and A2 and B2 emission scenarios have been used to assess uncertainty in forecasting climate change. For this purpose, a statistical model –SDSM- has been applied to downscale large- scale precipitation and temperature data and hydrological model –WetSpa- has been used to simulate runoff. After calibration of the hydrological model, downscaled precipitation and temperature data in near future (2020-2050) and far future (2070-2100) periods were introduced to WetSpa model and runoff was simulated for mentioned periods. Results of this study represent suitable performance of SDSM model in downscaling climatic data, especially minimum and maximum temperature. Also, performance evaluation of Wetspa model shows proper performance of this model for runoff simulation in Bazoft watershed, so that Nash- Sutcliffe efficiency during calibration and validation was 0.63 and 0.65, respectively. Moreover, assessing the amount of predicted runoff for future periods indicates an increase in annual runoff in the Bazoft watershed under both A2 and B2 scenarios.


The Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Rice in the Rasht County
M. H. Nasserzadeh, B. Alijani, M. Paydari,
Volume 24, Issue 2 (7-2020)
Abstract
Given the climatic changes and threats to food security in recent years, they have have become a major issue in agricultural climatology. The present study aimed to investigate the status of agricultural climate suitable for the cultivation of rice in the light of the influential climatic conditions in the past. Given the effect of temperature and the amount of precipitations on rice growth and the sensitivity of rice to these two variables, the study examined the predicted future temperature and rainfall and their effects on rice. Data related to the temperature and rainfalls were obtained from the Meteorological Organization. Additionally, the temperature and agricultural potential of the region were considered. By preparing the agricultural calendar for the cultivation of rice, the correlation between temperature, precipitation and rice productivity was calculated using the Spearman Correlation coefficient. By using the SDSM model, future data and temperature and precipitation return period were determined in the SMADA software. The results demonstrated that minimum spring temperature tended to be late spring. The minimum temperature had the highest impact in April, the maximum temperature had the highest impact in July and the maximum rainfall had the highest effect in both June and July. Based on the results of the prediction models, the studied region would experience an increase in temperature and rainfall by providing favorable conditions for the cultivation of rice. However, delays in the cold season and shortness of the growth period increased the risks associated with the cultivation of rice in this period.

 
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