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Showing 5 results for Trend Analysis
Trend Analysis of Climatic Factors in Great Cities of Iran
R Sabohi, S Soltani,
Volume 12, Issue 46 (1-2009)
Abstract
Climate change has important effects on earth environment and human life. Therefor, investigation and study of climate change is very essential. This study investigated rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and wind variability by analyzing data for annual and monthly climatic factors collected at 13 synoptic stations (industrial cities of Iran) by using Mann-Kendall test. The results of monthly rainfall trends showed that most of synoptic stations have significant positive and negative trends in winter and spring months. About 23% and 1.7% of stations have significant negative and positive trends, respectively, in annual trend of this factor. The results of monthly number of rainy days showed the major number of significant trends occurs in spring. In autumn (September, October and November) like as summer most of the stations have no significant trends. Analyzing the annual number of rainy days trends also showed that 4 stations have significant positive trends and 2 stations negative trends. Trend of greatest daily precipitation is low throughout the year, so there is not any significant trend in winter. Annual investigations confirm the seasonal investigations. The major number of significant trends in monthly mean maximum temperature occurs in summer but there are not any significant trends in winter and March. The trend of mean minimum temperature is approximately high in all of the seasons and the major number of significant trends occurs in summer and autumn and then in spring and ultimately in winter. In annual investigation, most of the stations showed positive trends and only Oroomieh station has negative trends. Trend of mean temperature is high except for winter. Most of the stations showed positive trend, indicating increasing trends in this factor. Annual studies vertify the positive trends and about 63% of stations have significant positive trends.
Trend Assessment of Extream Flows (Low Flow and Flood) in Sefid-Roud Basin
S. Dodangeh, S. Soltani, A. Sarhadi,
Volume 15, Issue 58 (3-2012)
Abstract
This study performs trend analysis of hydroclimatic varibles and their possible effects on the water resources variability. Nonparametric Mann-Kendall and spearman tests were used to investigate trend analysis of mean annual and 24-hr maximum rainfall, flood and low flow parameters of 23 hydrometery and 18 synoptic stations in Sefid-Roud basin. The results showed that mean annual and 24-hr rainfall parameters are decreasing in few stations while most of stations representing negative trend for low flow and flood time series. Applying Sequential Mann-Kendall test revelad that this negative trend is started from 1965 to 1970 for rainfall parameters and from 1970 to1980 for flow (low flow and flood) parameters. Results show that climate change has probability affected variability of climatic variables, while changing of land use may have aslo affeteced extreme flow trends during recent decads. Therefor it can be noted that combination of climate chanege effects and human activities on water recources have affected the negative trend of hydroclimatics variables.
Analyzing the Trends of Precipitation and Drought in Some Semi-Arid toHumid Regions of Iran
M. Nouri, M. Homaee, M. Bannayan,
Volume 22, Issue 1 (6-2018)
Abstract

In this study, the trends of changes of the standardized precipitation index in a 12-month timescale (SPI-12) and seasonal and annual precipitation were investigated in 21 humid and semi-arid stations of Iran during the 1976-2014 time period. After removing the serial correlation of some series, the trend of precipitation and SPI-12 was detected using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test. The results revealed that the trends of annual precipitation had been declining in all stations over the past 39 years.  The seasonal precipitation trend in winter, spring, autumn and summer was downward in approximately 90, 95, 47 and 37% of the studied stations, respectively. In addition, the descending trend of wintertime precipitation was significant in Sanandaj, Khoy, Urmia, Hamedan, Mashhad, Torbat-e-heydarieh, Nozheh and Qazvin. Also, the temporal trend of SPI-12 was decreasing in all surveyed stations except Shahrekord. Furthermore, SPI-12 showed a significant downward trend only in Sanandaj and Fasa. Moreover, the most severe meteorological drought occurred in the period 1999-2000, in Ramsar, Urmia and Hamedan, and in the period 2008-2009, in Tabriz, Sanandaj, Shiraz, Fasa, Qazvin, Mashhad, Torbat-e-heydarieh, Shahrekord, Gorgan and Kermanshah stations. Overall, the results of this study indicated that the trend of precipitation in most studied sites, particularly in semi-arid parts of the northeast and southwest of Iran, has changed due to the severe and long metrological drought that has occurred in the recent decade (2005-2015).
 


Analysis of Precipitation Fluctuations in the Urmia Lake Basin Using the SMK Method in the Period 1986-2015
F. Banan Ferdosi, Y. Dinpashoh,
Volume 22, Issue 3 (11-2018)
Abstract
In this study, in order to analyze the trends of annual precipitation, the information from 21 synoptic meteorological stations located in the Urmia Lake basin in a 30-year time period (1986-2015) was used. For this purpose, the Sequential Mann-Kendall test was used. The date of sudden change (if exist) in the precipitation time series of each station was identified. Significance of the trend in each of the time series and its direction (decrease or increase) in each of the stations were tested at 0.05 level. The results showed that 10 out of the 21 stations had a significant decreasing trend. Three stations (Sarab, Bostanabad and Sardasht) had significant increasing trends. Precipitation trends of eight stations were insignificant. Also, the study of sudden breaking points in the annual rainfall time series of the selected stations revealed that about 57.143 percent of the stations (12 stations) showed a significant sudden change in their annual rainfall series. In other words, more than half of the selected stations exhibited a   sudden change in their time series. The date of the sudden change of precipitation in eight stations (namely, Bonab, Sarab, Urmia, Oshnavieh, Kahrizi, Miyandoab, Bokan and Saghez) belonged to the middle part of the time series (i.e. 1996-2005). The sudden change date  of t hree stations (namely, Sardasht, Nagade and Tekab) belonged to the first decade of time series (i.e. 1986-1995) and only the sudden change date of  one station (namely, Maragheh) belonged to the last decade of time series (i.e. 2006-2015).

Evaluation of the Simultaneous Effect of Changes of Climatic Variables and Land Use on the Actual Evapotranspiration Trend Using the SWAT Model in the Ajichi Basin
H. Ahmadzadeh, A. Fakheri Fard, Mohammad Ali Ghorbani, M. Tajrishy,
Volume 26, Issue 3 (12-2022)
Abstract
Determining the actual evapotranspiration value and analyzing its temporal trend is essential for optimal water resources management in a basin. In the present paper, the actual evapotranspiration time series is simulated and its trend is analyzed according to the trend of climatic variables and land use in the Ajichi basin during the period of 2015-1987. The comprehensive SWAT model was set up, calibrated, and validated for the Ajichi basin. Also, the average of simulated actual evapotranspiration of crops (in wet years) was compared with similar values in the National Water Document. The results of the Mann-Kendall trend test showed that the annual rainfall in most meteorological stations had a decreasing trend and the rainfall trend in the ten stations decreased significantly. While the annual maximum temperature at all stations and the annual minimum temperature in most of them have significantly increased. Investigation of land use maps illustrated that the irrigated land area of the basin has increased by a 39% during the study period. According the study's results, the potential evapotranspiration of the basin has had a significant increasing trend with a rate of 2.54 mm per year. The results indicated that despite the increasing trend of potential evapotranspiration and irrigated land area, the actual evapotranspiration of the basin had a significant decreasing trend with a rate of 2.2 mm per year due to the decrease in rainfall.

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