Showing 7 results for Vulnerability
S. Ghaseminejad, S. Soltani, A. Soffianian,
Volume 18, Issue 68 (9-2014)
Abstract
Drought is a one of the most important natural disasters that have high socio-economic and environmental impacts.
However, drought is more than a physical phenomenon or natural event. Its impact results from the relation between a natural event and demands on the water supply, and it is often exacerbated by human activities. The traditional approach to drought management has been reactive, relying on crisis management. Due to the drawbacks of crisis management, employing proper risk management techniques has been suggested. In order to move from crisis management to risk management, in this study, risk of drought in Isfahan province was evaluated. Drought hazard index and vulnerability index are components of the drought risk management. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used as the index of drought hazard. For the calculation of SPI, the monthly rainfall data in 47 meteorological stations during the period of 1975-2007 were collected. The time series of rainfall data were prepared and for calculation of the standardized precipitation index in a 12 month timescale they were imported to SPI program. Percentage of drought occurrence in each severity was calculated and then the drought index map was obtained. Vulnerability index was calculated through socio-economic indicators (population density and percentage of people involved in agriculture), and physical indicators (available water capacity of soil and land use). Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) technique was applied for combination of vulnerability indicators. To assign weights to the criteria, an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used. After providing the maps, fuzzy membership functions for every criterion were used for their standardization. For the weighting of the criteria, a questionnaire was prepared and criteria comparison was done using the participatory approach by a group of experts. Finally, the drought risk index was calculated by multiplying the drought hazard index and vulnerability index. The results showed that hazard of very severe drought is mainly concentrated in the central part of province. The North and North East of Isfahan province could experience condition of severe drought. South West of Isfahan province is under moderate drought condition compared to the other parts of the province. Map of drought vulnerability index showed that the most vulnerability is in the West, South and North-East of province. Map of drought risk index showed that the Northern Province demonstrated high risk. To reduce the drought risk in Isfahan province, improving monitoring, early warning, increasing environmental awareness, and promoting water resource management practices should be considered.
M. Khoshoei Esfahani, H.r. Safavi, A. R. Zamani,
Volume 20, Issue 75 (5-2016)
Abstract
Drought is an extended period of low precipitation which resulted in injuries to consumers of water and reducing their performance, especially in agriculture. Different indices have already been proposed for evaluating drought, based on one of the varieties of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts, but no indices has been identified yet, encompassing all factors. This study has been carried out to assess existing indices for drought monitoring and proposing an integrated index including main factors of drought and is applied to the Zayandehrood river basin as study area, because of its sensitive situation in the central Iran plateau. An integrated index includes various drought factors such as meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, socio - economical and environmental factors. In designing of this integrated index, a combination of static and dynamic layers has been used. Static layers include land use, slope and soil type. Dynamic layers include precipitation, evaporation, temperature, surface water storage, groundwater levels position, and environmental needs. All these layers are analyzed in GIS software and drought zoning maps is prepared. Results showed that based on values of integrated index, water year 1371-72 was a wet year and water year 1378-79 was the most critical, in terms of drought.
A. Haghizadeh, H. Yousefi, P. Nourmohammadi, Y. Yarahmadi,
Volume 22, Issue 3 (11-2018)
Abstract
To determine the potential for groundwater contamination, vulnerability should be evaluated in different areas susceptible to contamination should be investigated. Aquifer (carbonate) karst or part of it is karst aquifer in the western region of Iran; due to the natural conditions of the region and human activities, they are susceptible to contamination by carbonate aquifer through holes devourer and feeding point leading to pollution. The aim of this study was to analyze aquifer vulnerability zoning map karst plain elster by using COP. This model uses three parameters including lining (O) the concentra flow(C) and precipitation regime (P) to assess the vulnerability of groundwater against pollution GIS software. The results showed that the plain with an area 7.8 km2 was dominated in terms of vulnerability, being in the middle class. Other classes, respectively, were low with the area 18.69 km2, high with the area 0.65 km2 as part of the northeast plain, and much less with the area of 0.6 km2 , The results of the sensitivity analysis also showed that at the factorization (P) due to appropriate rainfall area, the maximum impact was in determining the vulnerability of the area. And the factor (C) minimum has impact on determining the vulnerability of the area. Due to the small size of the mature karst area, the wide extent of non-karst region was shown for the verification of results related to electrical conductivity data (EC) against discharge wells in the region with the high vulnerability and moderate. A comparison was made too.
B. Navidi Nassaj, N. Zohrabi, A. Shahbazi,
Volume 23, Issue 2 (9-2019)
Abstract
Integrated simulation of water resources systems is an efficient tool to evaluate and adopt various options in macro-policies and decision-making procedures that are in line with the sustainable development of drainage basins. One of the drainage basin management policies is to enhance the efficiency of agricultural land use. Considering the complicated function of the drainage basin elements and their interaction with each other due to water discharge fluctuations caused by various factors such as climate change, the evaluation of these policies is of great importance. Given the low irrigation efficiency in Iran, the present study was aimed to evaluate the effects of management scenarios (including long-term irrigation efficiency increased up to 20% with 5% intervals) and discharge fluctuation scenarios (including 5% and 10% decrease in the average basin inflows) on the reliability and vulnerability of water resources system in Dez Basin. The integrated scenarios were simulated in the WEAP model. The scenarios were separately simulated for the Dez irrigation network and all farmlands across Dez Basin. According to the results, reliability was decreased by 5.69 and 18.89% in the scenarios with 5% and 10% decrease in the average basin inflows, respectively. Furthermore, the irrigation efficiency of 20% in the scenario considering the current inflows ended up with the reliability of 73.58%. Moreover, in the scenario involving 5% decrease in the average basin inflows, the reliability was increased by 3.8% with an increasing efficiency of 20%; with 3.8% and 5.7%, there was an increasing efficiency of 15% and 20% in all farmlands, respectively. In the scenario consisting of 10% decrease in average basin inflows, the reliability was increased by 1.91%, 3.8%, and 5.7% with the increasing efficiency of 10%, 15%, and 20%; on the other hand, with, these were 3.8% 9.46%, and 13.2% with increasing efficiency in all farmlands, respectively. In all scenarios, the vulnerability was found to fluctuate between 25% and 31%, which was systematically analyzed.
R. Mir, Gh. R. Azizyan, A. R. Massah Bavani, A. R. Gohari,
Volume 24, Issue 3 (11-2020)
Abstract
This study aimed to investigate the vulnerability of Sistan plain to fluctuations and Water Scarcity in Hirmand River using the vulnerability framework, by applying the resilience approach. The socioeconomic and biophysical components presented in this framework were embedded in a set of subsystems of the System Dynamics (SD) model. According to this, four levels of reference resilience were defined based on the annual flow from the Hirmand River, and the system attributes of concern were identified under the existing structure until 2050. Then, the proposed strategies to the socio-economic structure of the model were applied under two critical conditions of water scarcity and fluctuations of the river flow. The values associated to the system attributes of concern of the two mentioned conditions were compared with the reference resilience levels. The results showed the efficiency of the policy option in reducing water scarcity and the importance of the environmental impacts of the biophysical component. For example, the two modes of water scarcity and water inflow fluctuations had the revenues of 9490 and 5100 billion IRR (annual income according to the base price of 2011), but they had the same population and resident's utility, which was related to receiving 117 and 600 MCM of the environmental demand, respectively. Management, development and continuous support of the industrial sector can provide a "Success to the Successful" archetype for the socio-economic section of Sistan Plain.
S. Ayoubi Ayoublu, M. Vafakhah, H.r. Pourghasemi,
Volume 26, Issue 3 (12-2022)
Abstract
Population growth, urbanization, and land use change have increased disastrous floods. Iran is also among the countries at high risk of floods. The latest examples of flood damage are the devastating floods of the spring of 2019 with significant mortality and financial losses in more than ten provinces of the country. The purpose of this study is to prepare an urban flood risk map of District 4 City Shiraz. The vulnerability of the region was made using PROMETHEE Ⅱ and COPRAS multi-criteria decision-making models and urban flood hazard zones were prepared by partial least squares regression (PLSR) and ridge regression (RR) models and a risk map was obtained by multiplying the vulnerability and hazard in ArcGIS software. The highest percentage of the study area in the PROMETHEE Ⅱ and COPRAS models belongs to the moderate class of vulnerability. The evaluation of the vulnerability models using Boolean logic and RMSE and MAPE statistics, showed that the COPRAS model provided better results than the PROMETHEE model. The results of partial least square regression (PLSR) and ridge regression (RR) models in flood risk modeling were analyzed by the Taylor diagram, which showed the superiority of the ridge regression (RR) model and the accuracy of this model in preparing urban flood hazard maps. The risk map of the study area indicated that 34% of the area (973 ha) is in the range of high and very high flood risk.
M. Khoshoei, H.r. Safavi, Abbas Kazemi,
Volume 27, Issue 1 (5-2023)
Abstract
Drought is a continuous period of lack of rainfall that leads to damage to a variety of water consumers, especially in the agricultural sector and reduces their yield. Drought is considered one of the unpredictable disasters. Drought is different from other natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes, storms, etc. Based on the type of meteorological, hydrological, or agricultural droughts, various indices are designed to assess droughts such as SPI, PDSI, and SWSI. The objective of this study is to evaluate an integrated index that includes the main causes of drought. The integrated index includes various drought factors such as meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, socio-economic, and environmental. Isfahan province has been selected as a case study due to successive droughts in recent decades. A combination of static and dynamic layers has been used for designing the integrated index. Static layers include land use, slope, and soil type of the basin. Dynamic layers include precipitation, average temperature, available surface water, available groundwater, groundwater quality, and cultivated area. The results showed that the highest water stress occurred in the 1386 and 1391 years in the province and the lowest water stress and wet season in different parts of the province in 1387 and 1390 years.
