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Showing 40 results for Simulation

M. Noshadi, S. Amin, N. Maleki,
Volume 7, Issue 1 (4-2003)
Abstract

Increasing application of herbicides such as atrazine raises concerns about soil and groundwater pollution. This study investigated spatial and temporal variation of atrazine concentration and its transportation in the Daneshkadeh soil series (Fine, mixed, mesic, Calcixerollic Xerochrepts) at the experimental field of Agricultural College, Shiraz University. The risk of soil and water contamination due to applying atrazine was also assessed. The PRZM-2 model was evaluated for the simulation of the atrazine concentration. The experiment had 3 plots, 209 m2 each (19 by 11 m). Atrazine was applied on corn at a rate of 3.5 kg a.i./ha per plot. During the growing season, soil samples were collected from each plot 7 times through 1 m soil depth with 0.10-m increments. The observed data showed temporal reduction of atrazine concentrations in the soil profile. The maximum depth of atrazine traced was about 50 cm below the soil surface. Statistical parameters ME, RMSE, EF, and CRM were obtained to compare PRZM-2 predicted and observed soil residue concentrations. For all data, the mentioned parameters were calculated and found to be 2.78 mg/kg-soil, 12.73 mg/kg-soil, 0.49, and 0.25, respectively. The simulation results were in close agreement with the observed data. Therefore, PRZM-2 could be used for simulation of atrazine transport and groundwater pollution.
H. Rezaie, M.r. Neishabouri, A. R. Sepaskhah,
Volume 8, Issue 3 (10-2004)
Abstract

Hydraulic coefficients of a porous media such as hydraulic conductivity K(θ) and diffusivity D(θ) have a controlling role in the evaluation of groundwater flow and pollutant transport behavior. Therefore, successful porous media flow evaluation depends on the accurate determination of its hydraulic coefficients. But it is hard and time consuming to measure. Values for these coefficients accurately as measurements usually task place at a moisture range close to saturation. This situation justifies the preference for prediction models to be used. One method for evaluation of K(θ) and D(θ) coefficients is to use models which take measured soil moisture characteristic curve data into consideration. For the purposes of the present study, pressure plates apparatus measured the required data to develop soil moisture characteristic curve for nine various soil textures. The volume of instantaneous outgoing water was measured with respect to time and the total volume of water released at the end of each experiment was measured for a given pressure (0.1 to 1.5 Mpa) imposed on undisturbed soil samples. A simple equation based on Richard’s equation is provided for the estimation of K(θ) and D(θ). Application of Mualem, van Genuchten et. al, Burdine, Green and Corey, and Gardner models for estimation of the K(θ) and D(θ) values at a variety of nine varied soil textures under experiment showed a wide range of variation. Therefore, it is hard to simulate the accurate hydraulic conductivity behavior for the given varied soil textures by means of the models available. However, if the minimum and maximum simulated values obtained from the models at respective soil moisture contents are considered to be a permitted range, one may state that the results of the estimated hydraulic coefficients by the proposed method in this study lie within the permitted range or agree with the results of other models considered. Therefore, the proposed method for determination of K(θ) and D(θ) is capable of selecting the best simulation model to estimate hydraulic coefficient values.
K. Asghari, J. Sourinejhad, A. K. Zolanvar,
Volume 9, Issue 3 (10-2005)
Abstract

In this study, the simulation of the BORKHAR plain aquifer located in north-east of Isfahan was done for the estimation of the hydrodynamic coefficients and for the preparation of the prediction and management model with the purpose of the study of the water table surface situation in the next years. The study of the geological situation of the plain and the report of the drilling of its exiting wells indicated that the BORKHAR plain has two kinds of aquifer: confined and unconfined. According to the field data related to the unconfined aquifer, a part of this aquifer was selected for the mathematical simulation. The calibration model for the estimation of the K and Sy. coefficients was done by dividing the plain into four geohydrologic units and by using the PEST, a module of the MODFLOW model. The situation of the water table level during 1380-1390 was studied according to the different management options by the calibration model. If the trend of the exploitation doesn’t change during the next ten years, we will confront with a maximum drop of 48 meters. As a practical way for preventing from this drop, it was suggested that the exploitation management reduce the 30 percent of the demand. One of the most important result of this will be the 26 percent reduction of the drop. By developing an optimization model and by imposing the necessary constraints on the critical regions, and transferring water from other parts, it seems that the trend of the drop will be controllable at a admissible level (less than 10 meters until 1390). Using the optimization model will make a change in the increasing trend of the drop and an improvement in the situation of the aquifer.
A. Keshavarzi, M. J. Kazemzadeh Parsi,
Volume 10, Issue 1 (4-2006)
Abstract

Flow structure at water intake is very complicated and three-dimensional. Due to this the application of one and two-dimensional equations can not sufficiently explain the flow structure at water intake. In this study, the simulation of flow structure at a 45 degree water intake was investigated numerically and experimentally. Here, the characteristic of separation zone and velocity distribution at 45 degree water intake were investigated using Standard k-ε and RNG k-ε models. It was found that the Standard k-ε model enables to estimate the flow and separation zone at water intake. Also, the location of separate zone at the inlet of water intake was studied using experimental and numerical approach. It was found that the separation zone at 45 degree water intake occurs at the downstream of the inlet.
S. H. Tabatabaei, H. Fardad, M. R. Neyshabory, A. Liaghat,
Volume 10, Issue 1 (4-2006)
Abstract

To determine the water application efficiency in furrow irrigation more accurately, consideration of seasonal and spatial variation of infiltration properties are needed. In addition, the effectiveness of different farm management on infiltration are significant. The main objective of this research was to simulate the seasonal variation (SV) of infiltration coefficients in Kostiakov-Louise equation (KLE) in a cracking soil under two traditional farm managements. Farm studies carried out in a clay-loam soil in Karaj. The two management treatments were soil without wheat residual and soil with wheat residual by a 5 ton/ha rate. There were 22 furrows with 0.75 m width in the farm. KLE infiltration coefficients were measured using inflow-outflow and two point’s methods in six furrows. The results of this study indicated that the SV of a and k coefficients were not significant, but variation of f0 was significant which was simulated with a logarithmic model. The effectiveness of SV on cumulative infiltration (Z) was also evaluated and indicated to be significant that were simulated with a logarithmic model too. Finally, dimensionless parameter such as Z* were developed to predicate Z parameter in different irrigation time, irrigation events and different residual management. Base on the result, although residue management causes a significant difference between value of f0 and Z in two treatments, but it doesn’t effect on trend of variation during the season. It means that the trend of variation is independent of residue in soil. It is probably done because of change in some of soil physical properties such as soil bulk density and aggregate stability.
Sh. Rafiee,
Volume 10, Issue 3 (10-2006)
Abstract

Rapid drying can increase brittleness of and induce internal cracks in the grain which predispose the product to breakage during subsequent activities. To fully understand the drying process requires an accurate description of the drying mechanism. Kernel equilibruim moisture content (EMC) is a property strongly related to agricultural products drying phenomena. Its accurate prediction can lead to optimisation of drying processes, especially in highly automated computer aided drying systems. In this study, a finite element formulation and solution of a set of coupled conductive heat and diffusive moisture transfer equations, to improve grain drying simulation of axisymmetric bodies are presented. Axisymmetric linear triangular elements with two degrees of freedom per node are used to discretize the rice grain in model for different equilibrium moisture content (from 7.5 to 0.12 d.b.%). For the purpose of this study, one medium grain, ‘Sepidrod CV.’, was used. During the thin layer drying, the drying air temperature of 69 °C and initial moisture content of 17.23 d.b.%, were adopted. A high relation has been observed when the output of model with 11.5 d.b.% EMC was compared to experimental data obtained by others. The least and most root mean square error analysis (RMSE) calculated for models at different EMC with experimental data were 0.0091 and 0.1025. The least and most mean relative deviation modulus were 1.394 and 5.129, respectively. Considering the mean errors of the models in relation to the obtained experimental data, the equilibrium moisture content for 11.5 d.b gave the best result.
R. Shahmohammadi, S. M. Mirlatifi, K. Mohammadi,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (7-2007)
Abstract

A computer model (SprinklerMod) was developed to simulate hydraulics of sprinkler irrigation systems. The objective of this paper is to describe mathematical background of this model for simulating pressures and discharges of sprinklers along the laterals. The model is capable of designing two types of laterals: laterals with fixed sprinklers and laterals with portable sprinklers. The model shows the simulation results in the forms of tables and graphs. Laterals with one or two diameters on uniform or non-uniform slopes can be designed. The model provides graphical presentation of percentage of sprinkler pressure variations for different lateral inside diameters. The Hazen- Williams equation was used for the calculation of friction losses. The required input parameters for lateral simulation are lateral type, desired sprinkler operating discharge and pressure head, spacing between sprinklers, distance of first sprinkler from lateral inlet, number of sprinklers operating on the lateral, riser height, Hazen- Williams pipe friction coefficient and lateral longitudinal slope or field elevations at each of the sprinklers on the lateral. Laterals are simulated such that average sprinkler pressures and discharges become equal to the values requested by the designer. Iterative procedures were implemented to simulate sprinkler pressures and discharges on laterals and the Newton- Raphson iterative method was used for calculating pressure of each of the sprinklers on the laterals with portable sprinklers. In order to evaluate the model, some example results of the model were compared with classical design results. Since there is no formula for the calculation of the required lateral inlet pressure in classical design of laterals with portable sprinklers in the scientific references, a new formula was developed. Averages of absolute percentage of variations of lateral inlet pressures for laterals with fixed sprinklers and with one or two-size diameters ranged from 0.3 to 0.7 percent, respectively. This value for laterals with portable sprinklers was 0.1 percent. 
A. Jalalian, M. Amirpour Robat, B. Ghorbani, S.h. Ayoubi,
Volume 11, Issue 42 (1-2008)
Abstract

  Soil erosion is one of the most threatening issues for crop production and environmental qualities, especially for soil and water resources. Appropriate knowledge about total soil loss and runoff is valuable in order to perform soil and water conservation practices in watersheds. EUROSEM, "a single event, dynamic and distributed model," was developed to simulate soil loss, sediment transportation and deposition by rill and interrill processes. This study was conducted to evaluate EUROSEM model in order to simulate soil loss and runoff in Sulijan sub-basin, which covered 20 ha, from Charmah-Bakhtari province. The sub-basin was divided in to 19 homogeneous elements using topographic, land use, plant cover, slope and channel properties throughout it. Soil, plant cover, land surface and climate characteristics were measured and evaluated by field observations and laboratory measurements. Actual soil loss and runoff for studied events were determined by direct measurement in the field. After sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation steps were carried out to simulate runoff and soil loss. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that the EUROSEM model for predicting runoff was more sensitive to hydraulic conductivity, capillary drive and initial soil moisture. On the other hand the model for predicting soil loss was more sensitive to Manning's coefficient and soil cohesion. The results showed that the EUROSEM model was able to simulate well the total runoff, peak of runoff discharge, total soil loss and time for the peak of soil loss discharge. But that could not simulate well the peak of soil loss discharge and time for the peak of runoff. Although it seems that EUROSEM is able to predict soil loss and runoff partially well in individual events, it is necessary to evaluate the efficiency of the models for different basins with varieties of soil, plant cover and climatic properties.


J. Torkmani, Sh. Shajari,
Volume 12, Issue 44 (7-2008)
Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to study the differential impacts of various irrigation water pricing policies. The methodology used is based upon Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) mathematical programming models and also simulation. Two kinds of data needed to feed the models were obtained from official records and surveying. The analysis of water pricing policy indicates that the most important relative savings take place in the more conservative farmers due to their risk-aversion behavior. Also it can be seen that in the elastic segments of the demand curves the increase in the price of water encourages great saving in consumption due to changes in mixed crops, crops production by deficit irrigation methods and production of rain-fed crops. Results clearly demonstrate that each homogenous group of farmers displays different behavior patterns related to this natural resource. Therefore, this shows the usefulness of differential analysis in evaluating the impact of water pricing policy.
Afkhami, Dastorani, Malekinejad , Mobin,
Volume 14, Issue 51 (4-2010)
Abstract

Drought is a natural feature of the climate condition, and its recurrence is inevitable. The main purpose of this research is to evaluate the effects of climatic factors on prediction of drought in different areas of Yazd based on artificial neural networks technique. In most of the meteorological stations located in Yazd area, precipitation is the only measured factor while generally in synoptic meteorological stations in addition to precipitation some other variables including maximum and mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, dominant wind direction and the amount of evaporation are also available. In this research it was tried to evaluate the role of the type and number of meteorological factor (as inputs of ANN model) on accuracy of ANN based drought prediction. Research area is a part of Yazd province containing only one synoptic and 13 non-synoptic meteorological stations. Three-year moving average of monthly precipitation was the main input of the models in all stations. The type of ANN used in this study was time lag recurrent network (TLRN), a dynamic architecture which was selected by evaluation of different types of ANN in this research. What was predicted is the three-year moving average of monthly precipitation of the next year, which is the main factor to evaluate drought condition one year before it occurs. For the Yazd synoptic meteorological station, several combinations of input variables was evaluated and tested to find the most relevant type of input variables for prediction of drought. However, for other 13 stations precipitation data was the only variable to use in ANN models for this purpose. Results in all stations were satisfactory, even where only one input (precipitation) was used to the models, although the level prediction accuracy was different from station to station. Result taken from this research, indicates high flexibility of ANN to cope with poor data condition where it is difficult to get acceptable results by most of the methods.
M Motamednia , S.h.r Sadeghi, H Moradi, H Asadi ,
Volume 14, Issue 52 (7-2010)
Abstract

An extensive data collection on precipitation and runoff is required for development and implementation of soil and water projects. The unit hydrograph (UH) is an appropriate base for deriving flood hydrographs and therefore provides comprehensive information for planners and managers. However, UH derivation is not easy job for whole watersheds. The development of UH by using easily accessible rainfall data is then necessary. Besides that, the validity evaluation of different statistical modeling methods in hydrology and UH development has been rarely taken into account. Towards the attempt, the present study was planned to compare the efficiency of different modeling procedures in hydrograph and 2-h representative UH relationship in Kasilian watershed with concentration time of some 10h. The study took place by using 23 storm events occurred during four seasons within 33 years and applying two and multivariable regression models and 36 variables. According to the results, the median of estimated errors in estimation of 2-h UH dependent variables for verification stage varied from 37 to 88%. The results verified the better performance of cubic and linear bivariate models and logarithm-transformed data in multivariable model as well. The efficiency of multivariable models decreased when they were subjected to principle component analysis. The performance of backward method was frequently proved for estimation of dependent variables based on evaluation criteria, whereas the forward was found to be more efficient for time-dependent factors estimation.
T. Honar, A. Sabet-Sarvestani, A. Sepaskhah, A. A. Kamgar-Haghighi1, Sh. Shams,
Volume 16, Issue 59 (4-2012)
Abstract

In recent years, simulatiom modelling of yield has been the focus of attention for many researchers. Because, while reducing adminestrative costs, it can easily provide simulation models of different situations. In this study, while a subroutine on simulation of canola was added to CRPSM model, effect of different water treatments on canola was also investigated. In this research, canola (Talaye) under 5 irrigation treatments (full irrigation treatment during the growing period, water stress treatment at the spring re-growth stage, the flowering stage and pod formation, the grain formation stage and dry land treatment) was sown in complete randomized block designs at the college of Agriculture, Shiraz University during 2007-2008, and then the model was calibrated based on available information (soil-location -plant-water). Review of statistical indicators between simulated and measured yield show high accuracy in the estimation of crop yield (R2=0.98) and soil water content. The result of model validation with independent data series also showed that the result of soil water content is desirable except in dry treatment, and the corrolation coeficient between simulated and measured crop yield (R2=0.98) was acceptable.
Sh. Moradipour, H. Zeinivand, A. Bahremand, A. Najafinejad,
Volume 18, Issue 69 (12-2014)
Abstract

Evaluation of hydrologic behaviour and soil erosion as an environmental crisis is important in order to maintain watershed ecological safety at optimum level. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the distributed hydrological WetSpa model in simulating erosion and sediment transport and also sedigraph in Taleghan watershed, Iran. Base digital maps and daily meteorological time series data for 9 years are the major model inputs. The calibration of global parameters was done for the first 5 years and the model validation was carried out for 4 years considering three month warm-up period at the beginning of both calibration and validation periods. The Nash-Sutcliffe criterion for the calibration and validation periods pointed out the efficiency of model simulation (82.7% and 79%, respectively). The next phase, the erosion module was calibrated for erosion and sediment transport simulation. The results showed the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion (60% and 64% for suspended sediment concentration and transport, respectively). Overall, the evaluation results reveal the good ability of WetSpa model in simulation of the hydrological processes e.g., runoff, raindrop detachment, runoff detachment, net soil loss, etc., in a given time and space


S. Dowlatabadi, S. M. A. Zomorodian,
Volume 19, Issue 71 (6-2015)
Abstract

One of the most essential and appropriate groundwater model components is accurate information of the recharge values among input data often introduced to the model as the percentage of rainfall of aquifers. The recharge values are influenced by many temporal and spatial factors. Firoozabad plain is one of the suitable plains for agriculture in the Fars province in which utilization of groundwater resources has been banned since 23 September 2002, due to the declining water level and negative balance. The main purpose of this study was to estimate the recharge values of groundwater aquifer by using SWAT in the MODFLOW model. Firstly, surface water was simulated via SWAT model, and sensitivity analysis, calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis of results were performed by SWAT-CUP software. After extraction of aquifer recharge values from the calibrated model, the groundwater of basin was simulated via MODFLOW model in both steady and unsteady conditions. Following the model calibration, the hydrodynamic coefficients of plain were determined and sensitivity of model was checked in terms of hydraulic conductivity and discharge rate of pumping wells. As for the confidence, the model was revalidated, which proved in simulating the behavior of the aquifer very well.


M. Noshadi, S. Jamshidi , F. Foroharfar,
Volume 19, Issue 74 (1-2016)
Abstract

Evaluation of pollutant transportation in soil is important from different environmental aspects such as soil and groundwater contamination. The purpose of this study is to measure 2, 4-D concentrations in a silty loam soil under two different treatments (normal and deficit irrigation) in a corn field and simulate the results using the PRZM-3 and LEACHP models. Total concentrations of 2, 4-D in the soil profile in 8, 13, 23, 30, 37, and 57 days after application for normal irrigation were 18.5, 16.36, 11.67, 10.47, 8.47 and 3.2 mg kg-1, respectively. For these dates, PRZM-3 model simulated 18.5, 16.36, 11.67, 10.47, 8.47 and 3.2 mg kg-1 of 2,4-D, respectively and LEACHP model simulated 23.34, 20.93, 16.7, 16.3, 12.9 and 11.41 mg kg-1 of 2, 4-D, respectively. Total concentrations of 2, 4-D in the mentioned dates for deficit irrigation were 20.2, 16.7, 11.22, 10.05, 8.8 and 7.3 mgkg-1, respectively. For these dates, PRZM-3 model simulation results were 21.9, 19.89, 14.2, 10.62, 9.6 and 8.22 mg kg-1, respectively and LEACHP model simulation results were 25.22, 21.3, 19.43, 18.58, 18 and 16.27 mg kg-1, respectively. The simulation results showed that performance of PRZM-3 model was better than LECHM model in both treatments. In this research, the half-lives of 2, 4-D for 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm of soil depth were 7 and 33 days in a normal irrigation, and 9 and 34.65 days in a deficit irrigation, respectively.


A. Sheikhzeinoddin, A. K. Esmaeili1 , M. Noshadi,
Volume 19, Issue 74 (1-2016)
Abstract

Chemical fertilizers have important role in modern agriculture, and in the other hand led to rigid environmental pollution. Urea fertilizer is one of the most widely used and least expensive nitrogen fertilizers in Iran. Since it is high solubility in water a significant of it, if irrigation or precipitation is heavy, easily washed and led to change to change the quality of groundwater, rivers or seas. Hence, in this study the effects of deficit irrigation and fertilization on pollution using SWAT for Tashk-Bakhtegan basin (land area between Dorudzan dam and Khan Bridge) were simulated. This model by comparing model outputs with actual observations of hydrological, crop yield (wheat, barely, corn and rice) and nitrate by using SUFI2 algorithm in SWAT_CUP software were calibrated and validated. Then the calibrated model used to evaluate different management strategies (e.g. irrigation and fertilizer amount). When the impacts of different levels of urea (0 to 70 percent reduction in urea application) were modeled, yield of these crops reduced between 1 to 27, 0.8 to 24, 0.42 to 21 and 0.47 to 9 percent for wheat, barely, corn and rice, respectively. However, these tends to decline nitrate leaching 16-81, 18-80, 15-85 and 12.5 to 83.6 percent, respectively for these crops.  Therefore, by comparing yield and nitrogen loss changes, this result can conclude that a significant reduction in nitrogen loss by minimum cost on yield can achieved by optimize fertilizer application. 


H. Faghih, J. Behmanesh, K. Khalili,
Volume 22, Issue 1 (6-2018)
Abstract

Precipitation is one of the most important components of water balance in any region and the development of efficient models for estimating its spatiotemporal distribution is of considerable importance. The goal of the present research was to investigate the efficiency of the first order multiple-site auto regressive model in the estimation of spatiotemporal precipitation in Kurdistan, Iran. For this purpose, synoptic stations which had long time data were selected. To determine the model parameters, data covering 21 years r (1992-2012) were employed. These parameters were obtained by computing the lag zero and lag one correlation between the annual precipitation time series of stations. In this method, the region precipitation in a year (t) was estimated based on its precipitation in the previous year (t-1). To evaluate the model, annual precipitation in the studied area was estimated using the developed model for the years 2013 and 2014; then, the obtained data were compared with the observed data. The results showed that the used model had a suitable accuracy in estimating the annual precipitation in the studied area. The  percentages of the model in estimating the region's  annual precipitation for the years 2013 and 2014 was obtained to be 7.9% and 17.3%, respectively. Also, the correlation coefficient between the estimated and observed data was significant at the significance level of one percent (R=0.978). Furthermore, the model performance was suitable in terms of data generation; so the statistical properties of the generated and historical data were similar and their difference was not significant. Therefore, due to the suitable efficiency of the model in estimating and generating the annual precipitation, its application could be recommended to help the better management of water resources in the studied region.

E. Gravandi, A. Kamanbeadst, A. R. Masjedi, M. Heidarnejad, A. Bordbar,
Volume 22, Issue 3 (11-2018)
Abstract

Rivers has long been regarded as one of the most basic human water supplies. If the topography, a morphology, water requirements conditions, etc. allow water to be transferred to gravity, the use of the dike can have a significant impact on the flow rate and the sediment input to Intake. Dike design needs to consider several parameters such as position, length, type, etc. Using a good design can increase the input flow rate and reduce the sediment entering it. In this study, to evaluate the dike impact on flow hydraulic conditions in the Intake with different situations, 30, 45, 60 and 90 degrees two simple L-shaped dikes in the upstream and downstream Intake and for five inlet flows (0.7, 1.12, 2.84, 5.04 and 6.23 Lit/s) were considered in the laboratory flume made by the author as a physical model to simulate the flow of the basin; then different effects of the dike on the hydraulic flow were studied. The results of the tests showed that the L-shaped dike in the upstream and downstream Intake in the internal arc flume increased the inflow flow rate into the Intake. Also, the best angle of deviation for the maximum flow entered the Intake angle of 60 degrees.

P. Hadipour Nicktarash, H. Ghodousi, K. Ebrahimi,
Volume 22, Issue 4 (3-2019)
Abstract

One of the factors leading to the contamination of water resources is human activity, producing waste materials. In this paper, the effects of contamination on the water quality of Taleghan River, was simulated using of Qual2k model and the seasonal changes were evaluated. The qualified data collected during two months, August (as the dry season) and February (as the wet season), were used in the modelling. The results showed that the dissolved oxygen change was in the range of 4.5-6.52 mg/L in August. However, it changed between 4.8-5.3 mg/l in February and this reduction in the wet season was due to the run off deposition and the seepages of farmland near the river. Furthermore, BOD in the wet season and the dry season changed by 6-31 and 10-26 mg/l, respectively. These changes were due to the sewage dilution in flow during the wet season. Evaluation of the pH values in wet and dry seasons also showed that water of the river was more alkaline in the wet season, which is due to the effect of non-point resources or the fertilizer entrance after farm land bleaching by rain. Evaluation of Taleghan river EC variation also showed these changes were not significant during the wet and dry seasons. Water temperature was altered by 3-100C and 19-250C, respectively, in February and August.

H. Asakereh, A. Shahbaee Kotenaee, M. Foroumadi,
Volume 23, Issue 1 (6-2019)
Abstract

In the vast majority parts of the Earth, a prospect now visible is the mostly synthetic thinking and fabrication by the human hand. Collision and impact of humans on the natural environment in the short and long-term courses for obvious geographical features have changed a variety of spaces. One of the consequences of human impact on the natural environment during the current period is the phenomenon of climate change. One of the climatic parameters that plays an important role in agriculture, energy, urban, tourism and road transport is the minimum temperature. In this study, an attempt was made using the minimum temperature data from 5 meteorological stations in the West Mazandaran province, as well as HADCM3 model data, to show how to change this parameter in the future periods based on simulation by the SDSM model. Accordingly, after selection of the suitable climate variables and model calibration, the accuracy of the created model in the base period was evaluated; after ensuring the sufficient accuracy of the model according to A2 and B2 scenario, data minimum temperature in 2100 was simulated. Based on the simulation results showed that the values of minimum temperature in the region over the coming years would increase. This parameter was such that the average seasonal periods 2016 to 2039, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099, as compared to the baseline period would increase, on average, by 1.8, 3.5 and 6 percent. The largest increases in the minimum temperature in the western and southern parts of the region could occur. It was also found that unlike other months of the year, the minimum temperature in January would be a decreasing trend.


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