JWSS - Journal of Water and Soil Science

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Moghim S, Samavaki A A. Assessment of the Impact of Temperature- and Precipitation-Related Index Fluctuations under Climate Change on Saffron Yield (Case Study: Hamadan Province). jwss 2025; 29 (4) :140-153
URL: http://jstnar.iut.ac.ir/article-1-4501-en.html

The effect of climate change on agricultural productivity and efficiency is a major concern and challenge for the agricultural industry. Different hydrometeorological variables, such as extreme temperature, precipitation, and their variations, affect the growth and yield of agricultural products. Saffron is one of the most important agricultural products in Iran. Iran produces the largest amount of Saffron globally, and Hamadan Province is one of the major saffron-producing regions in Iran. This study uses different Artificial Intelligence methods not only for clustering and sensitivity analysis of the hydroclimatological variables but also for evaluating the impacts of climate change on Saffron yield in Hamadan Province. Results indicated that the Random Forest algorithm performs the best for sensitivity analysis among all algorithms. Extreme climate change indices, particularly those related to the monthly maximum and minimum temperatures, have the highest negative impact on saffron yield compared to other hydroclimatological indices. Furthermore, the minimum temperature has a more significant negative impact on saffron yield compared to the maximum temperature. Additionally, the counties of Malayer, Nahavand, and Asadabad, located in the south and west of Hamadan Province, exhibited the highest accuracy in sensitivity analysis. The findings suggest that monthly extreme temperatures can be used to assess the risk of saffron production, increase agricultural productivity, and improve decision-making for the cultivation of this product.